Arkansas vs Texas Tech Prediction 3/27/25 College Basketball Picks

The Arkansas Razorbacks are facing the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Thursday, March 27th at the Chase Center, in this Sweet 16 matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction. We will examine:

The Texas Tech Red Raiders recent form and player performance

The Arkansas Razorbacks recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas Tech Red Raiders

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arkansas Razorbacks

Recent betting trends in games played between the Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders game

Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

The Texas Tech Red have a 27-8 record this season and were placed 2nd in the Big 12. The Bulldogs are coming off a 77-64 win over Drake in the round of 32, and covered the -7.5-point spread. The Red Raiders are 18-17 against the spread, and 20-14-1 in over/under.

Offensively, Texas Tech is averaging 80.8 points per game, which ranks 32nd nationally. Defensively, they allow 67.6 points per game, which is 54th in the nation. The Red Raiders shoot with 46.9% from the field (63rd), and with 37.1% from beyond the arc (22nd). The Red Raiders shoot with 76.4% from the free-throw line (41st), and are grabbing 33.2 rebounds per game (111th).

JT Toppin leads Texas Tech in scoring this season, with an average of 18.1 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, while Darrion Williams adds 14.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game.

Arkansas Razorbacks Preview

The Arkansas Razorbacks have a 22-13 record this season and were placed 9th in the SEC. The Razorbacks are coming off 75-66 win over Saint John’s in the round of 32, and have now won both of their NCAA tournament games while being an underdog in both. The Razorbacks are 16-17-2 against the spread, and 16-19 in over/under.

Offensively, Arkansas is averaging 76.6 points per game, which ranks 104th nationally. Defensively, they allow 71 points per game (154th). The Razorbacks shoot with 46.4% from the field (78th), and with 32.4% from beyond the arc (226th). The Razorbacks shoot with 73.6% from the free-throw line (135th), and are grabbing 32.3 rebounds per game (176th).

Adou Thiero leads Arkansas in scoring this season, with an average of 15.7 points and a team-high 6 rebounds, while Boogie Fland adds 14.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and a team-high 5.7 assists per game.

Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders will win

• Texas Tech has won each of its last six night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Arkansas has lost eight of its last nine games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
• Texas Tech has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win

• Arkansas has won each of its last eight games against non-Conference opponents.
• Arkansas has won the first half in each of its last five games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Texas Tech’s last seven games against the Southeastern Conference Conference have produced a total of 147 or fewer points.
• Each of Arkansas’ last four night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 149+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas Tech ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (121.3).
• Texas Tech ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (99.9).
• Arkansas ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (5.7).
• Arkansas ranks T41st among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction

Both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their four previous meetings, and in their most recent meeting back in 2021, Arkansas won 68-66 at home. Arkansas is 3-1 against the spread in their four meetings against Texas Tech, and all of their four meetings had gone under the point total.

In this Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Texas Tech is coming as -5.5-point favorites. Texas Tech is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been far better away from home than Arkansas, as they have 8 road wins, while Arkansas just four.  

Both teams are coming in very good form in this matchup, as Texas Tech is 6-1 in their last 7 games, but they have trouble covering spreads, as they are 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games. Arkansas is 5-1 in their last 6 games, and 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Razorbacks have been on a roll in the tournament and have won by 7 and 9 points in games where they were the underdog, but this won’t last forever. I prefer the total in this game, as both teams are a strong 13-3 to the over in their last 16 games combined, and have scored 75+ points in all of their four tournament games. Take the over 148.5 points in this one.  

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 148.5