Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction 3/9/25 College Basketball Picks

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the South Alabama Jaguars meet Sunday in Sun Belt Tournament college basketball action from Pensacola Bay Center. Here’s an Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Arkansas State vs South Alabama pick. We will examine: 

The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ recent form and player performance

The South Alabama Jaguars’ recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arkansas State Red Wolves

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the South Alabama Jaguars

Recent betting trends in games played between Arkansas State and South Alabama

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Arkansas State vs South Alabama game

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Red Wolves have looked pretty sharp this year overall—outside of a couple of brief stretches of spotty play, that is. Arkansas State lost to Alabama, Rice, Hofstra, James Madison, and South Alabama during an 11-5 start. Next came a winning streak over Troy, Louisiana, Georgia State, App State, Texas State, Southern Miss, and Texas State again. A 1-4 run with a lone win over Southern Miss among losses to Marshall, Kent State, Troy, and South Alabama ensued. Since then it’s been four straight wins for the Red Wolves. Those victories have come in succession versus Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana, LA-Monroe, and Marshall. In total that gives Arkansas State a 23-9 run over 32 games so far this year. 

In their Saturday game versus Marshall, Arkansas State posted a three-point edge in the first half and maintained it with a 38-38 run from there in a 77-74 victory. Leading scorer Taryn Todd finished with 19 points and four steals. 

South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview

Over on the South Alabama side, they’ve got a rough run or two in the books this year but overall it’s been a pretty solid campaign. The Jags went 14-5 over their first 19 games, taking losses to Central Michigan, Ole Miss, Western Illinois, TCU, and Old Dominion along the way. A three-game losing streak came next versus Troy and LA-Monroe (twice), then a 5-1 stretch with a loss to Akron amid wins over Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Texas State, and Arkansas State. After another loss to Texas State, South Alabama has since beaten Southern Miss and Louisiana in consecutive outings. That gives the Jaguars a 21-10 record across 31 games during the 2024-25 campaign. 

Matched up against Louisiana back on February 28, the Jaguars came into the locker room with a 31-20 edge. South Alabama cruised from there with a 34-22 run and took the victory in the end 65-42. Tops in scoring was Elijah Ormiston with 28 points, 10 boards, and two steals. The only other player on the team to finish in double-figures was Barry Dunning with 15 points, six boards, five steals and three assists in 36 minutes of work on the floor during the win. 

Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win

• South Alabama has won seven of its last eight games against Conference opponents.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won 11 of its last 12 day games against Conference opponents.
• South Alabama has lost three of its last four day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• South Alabama has lost the first half in three of its last four day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Arkansas State’s last six day games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 144+ points.
• Nine of South Alabama’s last 10 games against the Sun Belt Conference at neutral venues have produced a total of 137+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• South Alabama ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (9.2).
• South Alabama ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (13.2).
• Arkansas State ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (39.9%).
• Arkansas State ranks 18th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (28.8).

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction 

I’ll stick with the Jaguars. South Alabama hasn’t been on the court in a while (February 28), but did well against a struggling Louisiana team in their latest appearance. The Jags shot 43.8 percent from the field with a 37-24 rebounding edge and 20-of-24 (83.3 percent) from the line in that one. The 3-point shooting was pretty awful though: 3-of-21 for 14.3 percent. The Jaguars have been below 66 points in two of their last four games, but they’ve won three of them. It’d be nice to see a decent total on Sunday, though. 

These teams have met twice so far, with South Alabama getting the win both times. The Jags will have to contend with Arkansas State’s hot offense (77 or more points in four straight), but I think South Alabama can pull it off in the end. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: South Alabama Jaguars +3.5