SMU vs Virginia Prediction 1/15/25 College Basketball Picks

The SMU Mustangs and the Virginia Cavaliers meet Wednesday in college basketball action from John Paul Jones Arena. Here’s an SMU vs Virginia prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best SMU vs Virginia pick. We will examine:

The SMU Mustangs’ recent form and player performance

The Virginia Cavaliers’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the SMU Mustangs

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Virginia Cavaliers

Recent betting trends in games played between SMU and Virginia

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the SMU vs Virginia game

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

SMU has been a pretty consistent team so far this year, but they do have a couple of rough patches in the books. The Mustangs beat Tarleton State, Florida A&M, and UNC Greensboro out of the gate, then fell to Butler and Mississippi State around a lone win over Prairie View during a 1-2 run. Wins over Cal Baptist, Washington State, Alabama State, Virginia, LSU, Boston College, and Longwood in succession came next, then a couple of losses versus Duke and North Carolina. The Mustangs got back on track with a win over Georgia Tech in their last outing however, giving them a 12-4 overall record in 16 games so far this season.

In the matchup with the Yellow Jackets over the weekend, the Mustangs came out of halftime with a dominant 50-19 lead. SMU cruised the rest of the way on a 52-43 deficit and took the eventual win 93-71 in the end. Chuck Harris put up 21 points with three rebounds and two assists, while BJ Edwards had 19 points, six assists, six steals, and three rebounds. Yohan Traore came off the bench to chip in 13 points with four rebounds in 15 minutes of work.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

Over on the Virginia side, their season opened on a pretty solid stretch, but they’ve had some difficulties since early December. The Cavaliers went 5-2 in their first seven with losses to Tennessee and St. John’s among wins versus Campbell, Coppin State, Villanova, Manhattan, and Holy Cross. A 3-3 run came next featuring wins over Bethune-Cookman, American, and NC State among losses to Florida SMU and Memphis. Since then it’s been three straight losses versus Louisville Cal and Stanford, giving the Cavaliers a .500 record through 16 games.

Matched up against Stanford on Saturday, the Cavaliers went into the second half with a 10-point deficit 40-30. Virginia didn’t end up getting any closer than that on a 48-35 run from there and took the loss 88-65. Tops in scoring was Isaac McKneely with 22 points, three assists, and two rebounds. Jacob Cofie added 11 points with five rebounds, one assist, and one steal, while top bench scorer Dai Dai Ames had five points and one steal in 14 minutes on the court.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Virginia has won 35 of its last 37 games at John Paul Jones Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in three of its last four night games against Conference opponents.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Virginia has lost five of its last six games against Conference opponents.
• SMU has won eight of its last 10 games.
• SMU has won the first half in nine of its last 12 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

SMU vs Virginia Prediction

I’m going to stick with SMU. The Mustangs took a 63-51 win at Moody Coliseum the last time these teams met up back on December 7. Things were pretty close in the first half, but SMU closed on a 33-23 run to take the victory. It was a pretty sloppy game on both sides (26 total turnovers), but the Mustangs prevailed thanks mostly to a 36-25 rebounding edge and a meager 34.0 percent shooting from the field by the Cavs. SMU has given up 71 or more points in five straight games (a 3-2 run) however, so Virginia may have some more shooting luck here.

Speaking of Virginia, they’re not the highest-scoring team in the world this year. They’ve been below 66 points in three straight (all losses) while giving up 70 or more points in each of those outings. The Cavaliers will have their hands full in this one if SMU plays to their capabilities, so I like the Mustangs to power one out on the road here.