USC vs LSU Prediction College Football Picks 9/1/24

The USC Trojans and the LSU Tigers meet Sunday in college football action from Allegiant Stadium. Here’s a USC vs LSU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best USC vs LSU pick. We will examine:

The USC Trojans recent form and player performance

The LSU Tigers recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the USC Trojans

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the LSU Tigers

Recent betting trends in games played between USC and LSU

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the USC vs LSU game

USC Trojans Betting Preview

USC had some high expectations in the 2023 season and failed to meet most of them with a relatively tepid 8-5 overall record. The Trojans went 5-4 in a competitive Pac-12, finishing around the middle of the standings. The good news is that USC won their Holiday Bowl appearance 42-28 versus Louisville.

Head coach Lincoln Riley will try to meet the hefty preseason expectations in 2024 during his third season at the helm. He’ll have a couple of new defensive coordinators along with returning OC Josh Henson (third season). The surroundings will be fresh this year—and as competitive as ever—since USC has now officially moved to the Big Ten Conference.

LSU Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the Tigers’ side, they had quite a few successes in 2023 mixed in with some letdowns. LSU managed a 10-3 overall run with a 6-2 SEC record. That would put the Tigers in third place among West Division teams behind Alabama and Ole Miss. LSU won the ReliaQuest Bowl 35-31 over Wisconsin to finish strong.

The Tigers have some turnover among their coordinators in 2024, but head coach Brian Kelly is back for his third season at the helm. The expectation is that LSU will be a pretty elite team this year, with the defense taking a step forward and the offense remaining strong. Looking past this difficult USC opener matchup, the schedule looks pretty favorable (on paper, at least).

Why the LSU Tigers will win

• LSU has won eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
• USC has lost each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 games at neutral venues.
• LSU has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as a favorite.

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last seven season openers.
• LSU has lost five of its last seven season openers as a favorite.
• LSU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four season openers.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of USC’s last three games.

Total Points Facts

• Fourteen of LSU’s last 15 games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of USC’s last nine games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• LSU ranked 1st among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (22.7).
• LSU ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (10.9).
• USC ranked 6th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (10.7).
• USC ranked T6th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (18.3).

USC vs LSU Prediction

I’ll lean toward LSU. That said, this should be a pretty great matchup and a top-tier highlight of the Week 1 slate. The Tigers should have their sights set on winning double-digit games, and it’s an achievable goal—especially with a statement victory in this opener. The offense should once again be great (even with the losses of elite receivers like Malik Cabers and Brian Thomas), even if they don’t reach last year’s lofty heights.

On defense, stopping the run will be a priority. The Tigers have given up over 2,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, which isn’t going to cut it for LSU’s lofty ambitions. The good news is that the team has the size and talent to stop that trend in 2024. They’ll have a tough test right out of the gate, but I think the Tigers can power out a cover. Should be a fun one to watch regardless.