Texas vs Florida Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Texas vs Florida Prediction for this College Football Week 6 game on Saturday, October 4th at the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Florida Preview

Florida has a 1-3 record this season and is sitting on the 14th place of the SEC. They are 1-3 ATS, 0-4 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 home record and 0-2 away record. The Gators are coming off a 7-26 road loss in Miami and are playing Texas A&M and Mississippi State next.

Offensively, the Gators average 22.0 points per game, which ranks 99th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 16.0 points per game, which is 24th. Florida averages 328.3 total yards per game, with 123 rushing yards and 205.3 passing yards per game. They allow 284.3 total yards per game, with 111.3 rushing and 173 passing yards per game.

DJ Lagway leads the Gators with 690 passing yards and 67.5% completed passes. Jadan Baugh leads the team in rushing yards, with 289, while Vernell Brown III has a team-high 18 caught passes for 219 receiving yards. Defensively, Myles Graham has a team-high 24 total tackles, 13 of them solo. Jaden Robinson leads the Gators in sacks, with 2, while Dijon Johnson has one interception.

Texas Preview

Texas has a 3-1 record this season and is sitting on the 11th place of the SEC. They are 1-3 ATS, 1-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Longhorns are coming off a 55-0 home win against Sam Houston and are playing Oklahoma and Kentucky next.

Offensively, the Longhorns average 31.8 points per game, which ranks 56th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 7.8 points per game, which is 2nd. Texas averages 438.8 total yards per game, with 202.8 rushing yards and 236 passing yards per game. They allow 211 total yards per game, with 59.8 rushing and 151.3 passing yards per game.

Arch Manning leads the Longhorns with 888 passing yards and 61.3% completed passes. Jerrick Gibson leads the team in rushing yards, with 155, while Parker Livingstone has a team-high 11 caught passes for 232 receiving yards, and has 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Michael Taaffe has a team-high 25 total tackles, 14 of them solo. Maraad Watson leads the Longhorns in sacks, with 1.5, while Graceson Littleton has one interception.

Texas Longhorns @ Florida Gators Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Florida Gators will win

• The underdog has won four of Florida’s last five games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
• Florida has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against top-10 AP-ranked teams at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
• Texas has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• Texas has won each of its last 23 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Florida has lost each of its last six October games against AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in five of Florida’s last six games.
• Florida has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against teams from Texas.
• Texas has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against conference opponents.
• Texas has won the first half in 15 of its last 16 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida’s last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Texas’ last seven October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida Gators Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Jadan Baugh leads Florida for touchdowns (2) this season.

Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Jelani McDonald leads the Southeastern Conference for interceptions (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida ranks T7th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (53).
• Florida ranks 123rd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (3.5).
• Texas has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Texas ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).

Texas vs Florida Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, Texas won 49-17 at home, covering the spread, as the game went over the total. 

In this Texas vs Florida Prediction, Georgia is coming as -6.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 42 points. Both teams are on completely opposite trajectories this season, as Florida has three straight losses, and Texas three straight wins, but they have lost their only road game this season. Both teams have been playing lower-scoring games this season, as they are 6-2 to the under in their 8 games combined. They both rank on the top-25 of the nation defensively, allowing 23.8 points per game combined, so I expect a low-scoring affair today. Take the under 42 points.