San Diego State vs Nevada Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a San Diego State vs Nevada prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 11th at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 7 matchup. 

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs are 4-1 (1-0) this year after they defeated Colorado State by a score of 45-24 in their last game. San Diego State led 28-10 at halftime and put the game out of reach with 10 points in the third quarter. The Aztecs out gained CSU by a total of 541-355, went 7-11 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Jayden Denegal went 13-16 for 256 yards and two touchdowns, while Byron Cardwell Jr rushed 15 times for 129 yards and one score. Jordan Napier caught seven passes for 153 yards and one touchdown to lead the receivers. The SDSU defense recorded four sacks and eight tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that win, San Diego State defeated Northern Illinois, California, and Stony Brook, but did lose to Washington State in their second game. The Aztecs are averaging 30.8 points per game with 185.8 passing yards and 175.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 12.6 points against per game this season. Jayden Denegal has completed 63.3% of his passes for 892 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Jordan Napier has 32 receptions for 443 yards and two scores. Lucky Sutton has led the rushing attack with 450 yards and five touchdowns on 88 carries this year. 

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview

The Nevada Wolf Pack are 1-4 (0-1) this season after they lost to Fresno State by a score of 20-17 last week. Nevada led 3-0 after the first quarter, but they allowed 20 points in the second quarter and came up just short in the second half for the loss. The Wolf Pack were out gained by a total of 342-246, went 7-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-1 in the game. Carter Jones went 11-15 for 121 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Caleb Ramseur rushed 16 times for 77 yards in the loss. Nate Burleson II led the receivers with one reception for 45 yards in the game. The Nevada defense recorded three sacks and eight tackles for loss in the defeat. 

Prior to that loss, Nevada also lost to Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and Penn State, but did beat Sacramento State in their second game. The Wolf Pack are averaging 14.2 points per game with 143.4 passing yards and 177.2 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.6 points against per game this season. Chubba Purdy has been the starting QB for Nevada, but it sounds like Carter Jones may start for this game. Caleb Ramseur has 236 rushing yards, while Marcus Bellon has 193 receiving yards and one touchdown this season. 

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win

The underdog has won four of the last six games between San Diego State and Nevada.
San Diego State has lost five of its last six road games against conference opponents.
Nevada has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against San Diego State.
San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games against teams from Nevada.

Total Points Facts

Each of Nevada’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of San Diego State’s last four games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Nevada ranks 131st among FBS teams for points per game this season (15.4).
Nevada ranks 131st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (68.8).
San Diego State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
San Diego State ranks 10th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (12.6).

San Diego State vs Nevada Prediction 

These two teams come into this matchup trending in opposite directions, as San Diego State has won three games in a row, but Nevada will be at home. The Wolf Pack have not defeated an FBS opponent so far this year, but they did play Fresno State and Middle Tennessee very close. I think switching quarterbacks is a good idea for Nevada, as they have scored 17 points or fewer in all four losses. The Aztecs are really hitting their stride right now, but they seem to be significantly worse on the road. Take Nevada and the points at home here. 

David Racey is 58-44 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!