Sacramento State vs Fresno State Prediction 9/12/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Sacramento State vs Fresno State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 12th at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 2 matchup. 

Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview

The Sacramento State Hornets are 1-1 this season after they defeated Mississippi Valley State by a score of 52-0 in week one. Sacramento State led 31-0 at halftime and cruised to the blowout win in the second half. The Hornets out gained MVSU by a total of 453-147, went 7-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jackson Sharman threw for 247 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, while Matt Coleman caught six passes for 141 yards and three scores. Daniel Swinney rushed eight times for 58 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Prior to that game, Sacramento State lost to Eastern Michigan by a score of 28-17 in week zero. The Hornets trailed 21-10 at halftime, but only managed seven points in the second half in the loss. Carson Conklin threw for 222 yards and one interception, while Onterrio Smith Jr had nine receptions for 86 yards. Isaiah Ene rushed three times for 44 yards and one score in the loss. 

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs are 0-1 this year after they lost to USC by a score of 39-0 last week. Fresno State trailed 30-0 at halftime and never got anything going offensively in the shutout loss. The Bulldogs were out gained by a total of 552-116, went 2-10 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Jayden Mandal threw for 77 yards and one interception, while Harold Duvall caught two passes for 34 yards. Rayshon Luke rushed eight times for 21 yards in the loss. 

Last year, Fresno State went 9-4 (5-3) last season and they finished tied for fifth in the Mountain West standings. Fresno State started the season with a 31-7 loss to Kansas, but they followed that up with a 42-14 win over Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs were 5-1 through six games, but they lost three of the next five. Fresno State did finish the regular season with a win over San Jose State and they defeated Miami (OH) by a score of 18-3 in the Arizona Bowl. The Bulldogs scored 25.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 18.8 points against per game on defense. 

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won each of its last nine September games as a favorite.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Sacramento State Hornets will win

• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games at Valley Children’s Stadium.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Fresno State’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams at Valley Children’s Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 2, Harold Duvall ranks T1st in the Pac-12 Conference amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Sacramento State Hornets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 2, Onterrio Smith Jr. has the most targets without a receiving touchdown this season (20).

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State ranks 137th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (116.0).
• Fresno State ranks 135th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (412.0).
• Sacramento State ranks T6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (39).
• Sacramento State ranks T116th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (10.5).

Sacramento State vs Fresno State Prediction 

Fresno State was blown out by a very good USC team last week and while it was an ugly loss, you can’t take much from it. The Bulldogs are built to be successful against teams from their own conference or teams from the group of five, not against elite teams in the country. Sacramento State bounced back from their loss against EMU with a win last week and I think they will continue to get better. I like Fresno State to win, but I am taking Sacramento State with the points.

David Racey's Pick: Sacramento State +18.5