Rice vs Navy Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rice vs Navy Prediction for this College Football Week 5 game on Saturday, September 27th at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Navy Preview

Navy has a 3-0 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the American Conference. They are 2-1 ATS, 3-0 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 1-0 away record. The Midshipmen are coming off a 42-23 away victory over Tulsa and are playing Air Force and Temple next.

Offensively, the Midshipmen average 44.0 points per game, which ranks 13th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 18.0 points per game, which is 40th. Navy averages 493.3 total yards per game, with 375.3 rushing yards and 118.0 passing yards per game. They allow 318.0 total yards per game, with 82.3 rushing and 235.7 passing yards per game.

Blake Horvath leads the Midshipmen with 328 passing yards and 72.0% completed passes. Alex Tecza leads the team in rushing yards, with 272, while Eli Heidenreich has a team-high 10 caught passes for 126 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, MarcAnthony Parker has a team-high 20 total tackles, 8 of them solo. Landon Robinson leads the Midshipmen in sacks, with 3.5, while MarcAnthony Parker has one interception.

Rice Preview

Rice has a 3-1 record this season and are sitting on the 3rd place of the American Conference. They are 2-2 ATS, 3-1 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 home record and 2-0 away record. The Owls are coming off a 28-17 home victory over Charlotte and are playing Florida Atlantic and UTSA next.

Offensively, the Owls average 22.2 points per game, which ranks 99th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 20.2 points per game, which is 53rd. Rice averages 323.3 total yards per game, with 246.3 rushing yards and 77.0 passing yards per game. They allow 304.0 total yards per game, with 132.5 rushing and 171.5 passing yards per game.

Chase Jenkins leads the Owls with 269 passing yards and 72.9% completed passes. Quinton Jackson leads the team in rushing yards, with 293, while Drayden Dickman has a team-high 15 caught passes for 123 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, Andrew Awe has a team-high 29 total tackles, 15 of them solo. Michael Daley leads the Owls in sacks, with 4, while Ty Anthony Morris has one interception.

Rice Owls @ Navy Midshipmen Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Navy Midshipmen will win

• Navy has won each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
• Rice has lost each of its last 12 September games as a road underdog.
• Rice has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Navy has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
• Rice has lost the first half in four of its last five road games against conference opponents.

Why the Rice Owls will win

• Navy has lost eight of its last nine games against teams from Texas.
• Rice has won four of its last five games.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Rice’s last four games.
• Navy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against teams from Texas.
• Rice has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Navy’s last seven games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of Rice’s last 10 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Navy Midshipmen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Eli Heidenreich ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (8.7) this season.

Rice Owls Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Michael Daley ranks 6th amongst FBS players for sacks (4.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Navy ranks 1st among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (375.3).
• Navy ranks 4th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (62.9).
• Rice ranks 136th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (77.0).
• Rice ranks T9th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (20.0).

Rice vs Navy Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, Rice won 24-10 at home, covering the spread, as the game went under the point total.  

In this Rice vs Navy Prediction, Navy is coming as -14.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 45.5 points. Both teams are 6-0 to the over in their last six games combined, and the total for today’s game is too low. Rice has 55 and 45 total points in their last two games, while Navy has an average total of 62 points this season. I expect another high-scoring affair, so take the over 45.5 points in this one.