North Carolina vs NC State Prediction 11/29/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction for this College Football Week 14 game on Saturday, November 29th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Preview

North Carolina State has a 6-5 record this season and is sitting 11th in the ACC. They are 4-6 ATS, 6-4 in Over/Under and have a 4-1 home record and a 1-4 away record. North Carolina State is coming off a 21-11 home win against Florida State.

Offensively, North Carolina State averages 29.1 points per game, ranking 56th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.7 points per game, which is 105th. North Carolina State averages 397.8 total yards per game (252 passing and 145.8 rushing), while allowing 435.2 total yards per game (144.1 rushing and 291.1 passing).

CJ Bailey leads North Carolina State with 2,683 passing yards with 69.6% completed passes and 21 touchdowns. Daylan Smothers leads the team in rushing yards with 907, while Justin Joly has a team-high 42 receptions for 438 receiving yards. Defensively, Caden Fordham has a team-high 118 total tackles (51 of them solo), while Tyler Thompson leads the team in sacks, with 7, and Devon Marshall has a team-high 2 interceptions.

North Carolina Tar Heels Preview

North Carolina has a 4-7 record this season and is sitting 13th in the ACC. They are 5-5 ATS, 3-7 in Over/Under and have a 2-3 home record and a 2-3 away record. North Carolina is coming off a 25-32 home loss against Duke.

Offensively, North Carolina averages 19.3 points per game, ranking 121st in the nation, while defensively, they allow 22.9 points per game, which is 53rd. North Carolina averages 290.9 total yards per game (182.5 passing and 108.5 rushing), while allowing 332.5 total yards per game (120.3 rushing and 212.2 passing).

Gio Lopez leads North Carolina with 1,629 passing yards with 64.9% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Demon June leads the team in rushing yards with 461, while Jordan Shipp has a team-high 52 receptions for 581 receiving yards. Defensively, Khmori House has a team-high 77 total tackles (43 of them solo), while Melkart Abou-Jaoude leads the team in sacks, with 10, and Khmori House, Andrew Simpson, Kaleb Cost, Jaiden Patterson, Gregory Smith III, Malcolm Ziglar have a team-high 1 interception each.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ NC State Wolfpack Betting Trends: Week 14

Why the NC State Wolfpack will win

• North Carolina has lost each of its last nine games as an underdog in North Carolina.
• The home team has won each of NC State’s last six games.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of NC State’s last six games.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games in November.
• NC State has won the first quarter in each of its last three home games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• The underdog has won each of the last three games between North Carolina and NC State.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last four games between North Carolina and NC State.
• NC State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four November games as a home favorite.
• NC State has lost the first half in 12 of its last 16 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last five games between North Carolina and NC State have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of North Carolina’s last six games as an underdog in North Carolina have gone OVER the total points line.

NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Justin Joly ranks T1st in the Atlantic Coast Conference for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Melkart Abou-Jaoude ranks T8th amongst FBS players for sacks (10.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• NC State ranks 136th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (291.1).
• NC State ranks 6th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (94.1).
• North Carolina ranks 131st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (291.3).
• North Carolina ranks T6th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (73.3).

North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction

In this North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction, North Carolina State is coming as -7.5-point home favorites. Neither team has been in good form lately, as NC State is 2-3 in its last 5 games, while North Carolina is 2-5 in its last 7. Both teams have been averaging 48.4 points per game combined this season, while allowing 52.8 points per game defensively. Today’s total is set at 47.5 points, which is lower than both numbers, so I am going to go over that number.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: North Carolina State +7.5