Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction 10/22/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction for this College Football Week 9 game on Wednesday, October 22nd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

New Mexico State has a 3-3-0 record this season and is sitting 9th in Conference USA. They are 3-3 ATS, 3-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and a 0-3 away record. New Mexico State is coming off a 27-30 road loss against Liberty and will face Western Kentucky and Kennesaw State next.

Offensively, New Mexico State averages 23.0 points per game, ranking 98th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 24.0 points per game, which is 62nd. New Mexico State averages 324.5 total yards per game (258.0 passing and 66.5 rushing), while allowing 381.0 total yards per game (146.2 rushing and 234.8 passing).

Logan Fife leads New Mexico State with 1,514 passing yards with 56.5% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Kadarius Calloway leads the team in rushing yards with 230, while Donovan Faupel has a team-high 26 receptions for 363 receiving yards. Defensively, Naeten Mitchell has a team-high 50 total tackles (33 of them solo), while Ezra Christensen leads the team in sacks, with 5.0, and Naeten Mitchell has a team-high 1 interception.

Missouri State Bears Preview

Missouri State has a 3-3-0 record this season and is sitting 7th in Conference USA. They are 3-3 ATS, 1-5 in Over/Under and have a 1-2 home record and a 2-1 away record. Missouri State is coming off a 22-20 road win against Middle Tennessee State and will face Florida International and Liberty next.

Offensively, Missouri State averages 21.7 points per game, ranking 110th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.7 points per game, which is 102nd. Missouri State averages 367.5 total yards per game (264.5 passing and 103.0 rushing), while allowing 394.8 total yards per game (151.2 rushing and 243.7 passing).

Jacob Clark leads Missouri State with 1,195 passing yards with 65.2% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Shomari Lawrence leads the team in rushing yards with 349, while Alred Luke has a team-high 24 receptions for 335 receiving yards. Defensively, Maguire Neal, Kanye Young and Jared Lloyd are tied for the team-high with 34 total tackles, while Mitchell Toney leads the team in sacks, with 2.0, and three players are tied for the team-high with 1 interception.

Missouri State Bears @ New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 9

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Ezra Christensen leads the Conference USA for sacks (5.0) this season.

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Ramone Green Jr. leads the Conference USA for yards per reception (19.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (66.3).
• New Mexico State ranks 130th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.7).
• Missouri State ranks 135th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (13.2).
• Missouri State ranks 134th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (26.9).

Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction

In this Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction, Missouri State is coming as -1.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 52 points. Both teams have identical records so far this season, but the Aggies are a perfect 3-0 at home, and are better both offensively and defensively. The Bears rank outside the top-100 of the country both offensively and defensively, and have been losing by an average of 8 points this season, so it doesn’t make sense to be road favorites in this spot. The value here lies with the home dog, so take New Mexico State on the moneyline in this one.