Memphis vs Troy Prediction 9/13/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Memphis vs Troy Prediction for this College Football Week 3 game on Saturday, September 13th at the Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL). Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Troy Trojans Preview

The Trojans have a 1-1 record this season and are ranked as No.104 in the College Football Top 136 Team Rankings for 2025. Ohio State is number 1, Penn State is number 2 and LSU is number 3 in the rankings. The Trojans are coming off a 17-26 road defeat in Clemson. Troy outgained their opponents by 416-249 yards. They had 14/24 completed passes, 144 passing yards, 272 rushing yards, with Troy winning the turnover battle 0-1. The Trojans went 9-15 in third down efficiency and had 8-100 penalties.

Goose Crowder had 14/24 passes, a team-high 144 passing yards and three touchdowns. Tae Meadows added a team-high 186 rushing yards, while Ethan Conner caught 4 passes for 20 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Jordan Stringer had 9 total tackles, three of them solo, while Devin Lafayette had one sack. Troy had no interceptions.

Memphis Tigers Preview

The Tigers have a 2-0 record this season and are ranked as No.59 in the College Football Top 136 Team Rankings for 2025. Ohio State is number 1, Penn State is number 2 and LSU is number 3 in the rankings. The Tigers are coming off a 38-16 home victory over Georgia State. Memphis outgained their opponents by 401-389 yards. They had 16/20 completed passes, 196 passing yards, 205 rushing yards, with Memphis winning the turnover battle 0-1. The Tigers went 5-10 in third down efficiency and had 7-65 penalties.

Brendon Lewis had 16/20 passes, a team-high 196 passing yards. Sutton Smith added a team-high 74 rushing yards, while Sutton Smith also caught 4 passes for 43 yards. Defensively, Sam Brumfield had 8 total tackles, five of them solo, and also recorded one sack. Memphis had no interceptions.

Memphis Tigers @ Troy Trojans Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• The home team has won seven of Troy’s last eight games.
• Troy has covered the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog.
• Troy has won the first half in four of its last five home games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Memphis Tigers will win

• Memphis has won each of its last 12 games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
• Troy has lost four of its last five games in September.
• Memphis has covered the spread in each of its last six games against teams from Alabama.
• Troy has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
• Memphis has won the first quarter in six of its last seven road games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
• Memphis has won the first half in each of its last eight games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Troy’s last eight games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Memphis’ last five games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.

Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Justin Powe leads the Sun Belt Conference for interceptions (1) this season.

Memphis Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Sutton Smith ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Troy ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Troy ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (42:02).
• Memphis ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Memphis has won the third quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.

Memphis vs Troy Prediction

In their only previous meeting last season, Memphis won 38-17 at home, covering the -19-point spread, as the game went under the 55.5-point total.  

In this Memphis vs Troy Prediction, Memphis is coming in as -4.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 50.5 points. Memphis is looking great in its first two games of the season, having won both, with an average of 26.5 points per game. They play amazing defense, holding their opponents into just 13 points per game, and Troy scored just 16 points in their last game. The Tigers also won comfortably last season by 21 points and I like them as small favorites in this spot. Take the Memphis Tigers and lay the -4.5 points on the road.