Liberty vs Bowling Green Prediction 9/13/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Liberty vs Bowling Green prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 13th at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 3 matchup. 

Liberty Flames Betting Preview

The Liberty Flames are 1-1 this year after they lost to Jacksonville State by a score of 34-24 last week. Liberty was tied at seven after the first quarter, but they trailed 17-10 at the half. The Flames cut the deficit to 31-24 in the fourth, but couldn’t get a key stop and ended up with the loss. Liberty out gained Jacksonville State by a total of 534-395, went 7-14 on third down conversions, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0. Ethan Vasko went 19-29 for 335 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Donte Lee Jr caught two passes for 74 yards and one score in the loss. Evan Dickens rushed for 114 yards and one touchdown on 13 carries in the game. 

Liberty defeated Maine by a score of 28-7 in week one to open the 2025 season. The Flames are averaging 32 points per game with 266.0 passing yards and 196.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 20.5 points against per game this year. Ethan Vasko has completed 61.3% of his passes for 532 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while Evan Dickens has rushed for 148 yards and one touchdown this season. Donte Lee Jr has led the Liberty receivers with five catches for 110 yards and two scores. 

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview

The Bowling Green Falcons are 1-1 this season after they lost to Cincinnati by a score of 34-20 in their last game. Bowling Green trailed 7-0 after the first quarter and 21-3 at halftime. The Falcons did cut the deficit to 14 points at multiple times in the second half, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. Bowling Green was out gained by a total of 439-372, went 6-16 on third down conversions, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Drew Pyne went 29-36 for 274 yards and one touchdown, while Jyrin Johnson caught seven passes for 80 yards and one touchdown. Cameron Pettaway led the running backs with 72 yards on 13 carries in the defeat. 

Bowling Green started the 2025 season with a 26-7 win over Lafayette in week one. Bowling Green is averaging 23 points per game with 191.5 passing yards and 127.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.5 points against per game this year. Drew Pyne has completed 75.9% of his passes for 383 yards and one touchdown, while Cameron Pettaway has rushed for 107 yards on the season. Jyrin Johnson has caught eight passes for 102 yards and one touchdown to lead the receivers. 

Why Bowling Green will beat Liberty

Bowling Green has won three of its last four games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
Liberty has lost three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
The underdog has covered the spread in each of Bowling Green’s last four games.
Liberty has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

Each of Bowling Green’s last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Three of Liberty’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Bowling Green ranks T20th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (1.5).
Bowling Green ranks T28th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (82.5).
Liberty ranks 4th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+12.5).
Liberty ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (92.0).

David Racey is 20-15 (57%) in College Football this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Liberty vs Bowling Green Prediction 

Liberty picked up a rough road loss against Jacksonville State last week, as they were just about a touchdown favorite in that game. The Flames racked up a ton of offense in that game, but they had some turnovers and the defense struggled. Bowling Green was competitive in their loss to Cincinnati and I think they can find some more success in this one. The Falcons should be able to move the ball against this Liberty defense and we haven’t really seen a complete game from the Flames yet, so I will gladly take the points with the home team.