Florida State vs Virginia Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Florida State vs Virginia prediction for this College Football game on Friday, September 26th at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles are 3-0 (0-0) this year after they defeated Kent State by a score of 66-10 in their last game. Florida State led 35-7 after the first quarter and 45-7 at the half, before cruising to the blowout victory in the second half. The Seminoles out gained Kent State by a total of 775-206, went 9-10 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Tommy Castellanos went 10-13 for 205 yards and one interception, while also rushing for 54 yards and two scores. Gavin Sawchuk rushed 11 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns, while Micahi Danzy caught two passes for 112 yards in the win. The FSU defense recorded two sacks and six tackles for loss in the victory. 

Florida State opened the season with a 31-17 win over Alabama in week one and followed that up with a 77-3 win over East Texas A&M. The Seminoles are averaging 58.0 points per game with 265.7 passing yards and 363.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 10.0 points against per game this season. Tommy Castellanos has completed 71.1% of his passes for 594 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Duce Robinson has caught eight passes for 199 yards and two scores. Micahi Danzy has led the rushing attack with 173 yards and three touchdowns on five carries this year. 

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers are 3-1 (1-0) this season after they defeated Stanford by a score of 48-20 last week. Virginia led 21-7 after the first quarter and 28-14 at halftime, before pulling away in the second half for the big win. The Cavaliers out gained Stanford by a total of 594-323, went 7-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Chandler Morris went 23-31 for 380 yards and four touchdowns, while J’Mari Taylor rushed 15 times for 85 yards. Trell Harris led the receivers with four catches for 145 yards and three scores in the game. The UVA defense recorded five sacks and eight tackles for loss in the win. 

Virginia already has wins over Coastal Carolina and William & Mary by scores of 48-7 and 55-16, but they did lose to NC State by a score of 35-31. The Cavaliers are averaging 45.5 points per game with 313.0 passing yards and 251.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 19.5 points against per game this season. Chandler Morris has completed 70.8% of his passes for 1,050 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception, while Trell Harris has caught 18 passes for 321 yards and three scores. J’Mari Taylor is the leading rusher for Virginia with 298 yards and six touchdowns on 48 carries this season. 

Why Florida State will beat Virginia 

Virginia has lost each of its last eight September games as an underdog.
Florida State has won four of its last five games.
The favorite has covered the spread in each of Virginia’s last four games at Scott Stadium.
Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three September games against AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

Each of Florida State’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of Virginia’s last four games in Virginia have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Virginia has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 25+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
Virginia ranks 3rd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.5).
Florida State has recorded the largest margin of victory in a home game this season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
Florida State ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (21.0).

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Florida State vs Virginia Prediction 

Florida State rolls into this matchup looking to stay undefeated, but will face a Virginia team that has scored 48 and 55 points in their last two games. I think the Cavaliers will start the game strong, but Florida State is going to be too much for them, especially on defense. We saw FSU give Alabama a ton of trouble in their opening game, while Virginia couldn’t even get a key stop against NC State. Take Florida State to cover on the road.