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Boise State vs Air Force Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Boise State (1-1) vs Air Force (1-1)
September 20, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Air Force +9.5 — Over/Under: 0.0001
The Boise State Broncos and the Air Force Falcons meet Saturday in college football action from Falcon Stadium. Here’s a Boise State vs Air Force prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Boise State vs Air Force pick. We will examine:
The Boise State Broncos recent form and player performance
The Air Force Falcons recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boise State Broncos
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Air Force Falcons
Recent betting trends in games played between Boise State and Air Force
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Boise State vs Air Force game
Boise State only has two games in the can so far this year. First came a road matchup versus a tough South Florida team. The Broncos held an early lead 7-0 but didn’t score from there in a 34-7 loss. Maddux Madsen threw for 225 yards and one TD, while Sire Gaines led the rushing attack with his nine carries for 44 yards. LaTrell Caples was the leading team receiver with his four catches for 58 yards in the blowout defeat.
Game two versus Eastern Washington went much better for Boise State. The Broncos scored 20 points in the first quarter alone (notching double-digit points in three of four), eventually rolling to a 51-14 blowout finish. Madsen was 16-of-26 for 307 yards and two scores this time and also had a rush score. Five different Broncos posted a TD on the ground, including Dylan Riley among his six totes for 123 yards. Chris Marshall caught four balls for 132 yards, and Ben Ford had 82 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Over on the Air Force side, they’ve only got a couple of outings to their credit so far this year as well. The Falcons opened up versus Bucknell, scoring 14 points in each of the first three quarters during a 49-13 win. Josh Johnson was 4-of-7 for 112 yards and two touchdowns, and Cade Harris led the rush with eight carries for 66 yards and two scores. Harris was also the team’s leading receiver (and the only one to catch more than one pass) with three grabs for 83 yards and a touchdown.
In last weekend’s matchup with Utah State, the Falcons coughed up 21 points in the third quarter and 14 more in the fourth during a 49-30 loss. Liam Szarka threw for 67 yards and a pick, and Harris led the rush on 72 yards off eight totes. Harris was also the leading receiver in the defeat, catching two balls for 63 yards.
Heading into Week 4, Mikhail Seiken leads the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.
Heading into Week 4, Dylan Riley leads the Mountain West Conference for yards per carry (11.0) this season.
Air Force has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last nine games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Air Force ranks 133rd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (12.0).
Boise State ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+13.5).
Boise State ranks 12th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (13.5).
I’ll probably lean toward Air Force here, but it’ll be an interesting game regardless. The Falcons’ ground game looked good against Bucknell, notching 267 rush yards and 7.1 yards per play. On defense Air Force gave up just 266 total yards and held the Bison to just 3-of-11 on third-down tries. Last weekend the Falcons couldn’t overcome their mistakes against Utah State, coughing up three turnovers and totaling just 179 pass yards. The defense mostly gave up quick scores, resulting in 473 total yards (287 passing) and 22 first downs for the Aggies. It wasn’t Air Force’s greatest effort, but the good news is that they still scored quite well. That makes 30 or more points in both games. The defense should be a concern against some of the more capable teams out there, though.
As for Boise State, they matched up much better versus Eastern Washington in their last outing, putting up a whopping 328 rush yards (637 total) and 9.4 yards per play. The Broncos likely won’t be able to be that effective versus Air Force’s defense though, so I like the Falcons a little better here.
The Boise State Broncos recent form and player performance
The Air Force Falcons recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boise State Broncos
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Air Force Falcons
Recent betting trends in games played between Boise State and Air Force
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Boise State vs Air Force game
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Boise State only has two games in the can so far this year. First came a road matchup versus a tough South Florida team. The Broncos held an early lead 7-0 but didn’t score from there in a 34-7 loss. Maddux Madsen threw for 225 yards and one TD, while Sire Gaines led the rushing attack with his nine carries for 44 yards. LaTrell Caples was the leading team receiver with his four catches for 58 yards in the blowout defeat.
Game two versus Eastern Washington went much better for Boise State. The Broncos scored 20 points in the first quarter alone (notching double-digit points in three of four), eventually rolling to a 51-14 blowout finish. Madsen was 16-of-26 for 307 yards and two scores this time and also had a rush score. Five different Broncos posted a TD on the ground, including Dylan Riley among his six totes for 123 yards. Chris Marshall caught four balls for 132 yards, and Ben Ford had 82 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
Over on the Air Force side, they’ve only got a couple of outings to their credit so far this year as well. The Falcons opened up versus Bucknell, scoring 14 points in each of the first three quarters during a 49-13 win. Josh Johnson was 4-of-7 for 112 yards and two touchdowns, and Cade Harris led the rush with eight carries for 66 yards and two scores. Harris was also the team’s leading receiver (and the only one to catch more than one pass) with three grabs for 83 yards and a touchdown.
In last weekend’s matchup with Utah State, the Falcons coughed up 21 points in the third quarter and 14 more in the fourth during a 49-30 loss. Liam Szarka threw for 67 yards and a pick, and Harris led the rush on 72 yards off eight totes. Harris was also the leading receiver in the defeat, catching two balls for 63 yards.
Boise State Broncos @ Air Force Falcons Betting Trends: Week 4
Air Force Falcons Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, Mikhail Seiken leads the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.
Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, Dylan Riley leads the Mountain West Conference for yards per carry (11.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Air Force has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last nine games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Air Force ranks 133rd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (12.0).
Boise State ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+13.5).
Boise State ranks 12th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (13.5).
Boise State vs Air Force Prediction
I’ll probably lean toward Air Force here, but it’ll be an interesting game regardless. The Falcons’ ground game looked good against Bucknell, notching 267 rush yards and 7.1 yards per play. On defense Air Force gave up just 266 total yards and held the Bison to just 3-of-11 on third-down tries. Last weekend the Falcons couldn’t overcome their mistakes against Utah State, coughing up three turnovers and totaling just 179 pass yards. The defense mostly gave up quick scores, resulting in 473 total yards (287 passing) and 22 first downs for the Aggies. It wasn’t Air Force’s greatest effort, but the good news is that they still scored quite well. That makes 30 or more points in both games. The defense should be a concern against some of the more capable teams out there, though.
As for Boise State, they matched up much better versus Eastern Washington in their last outing, putting up a whopping 328 rush yards (637 total) and 9.4 yards per play. The Broncos likely won’t be able to be that effective versus Air Force’s defense though, so I like the Falcons a little better here.
