Arkansas State vs Memphis Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Memphis Tigers meet in week 1 college football action from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Memphis Tigers Prediction.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Team Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves come into the 2026 season looking to build on a successful 2025 season under Butch Jones, going 7-6 overall including 5-3 in Sun Belt conference play. The Red Wolves would get an invite to the Xbox Bowl, where they would knock off Missouri State, 34-28. Jaylen Raynor is gone at QB for A-State, but Ethan Crawford has seen time in the system to be the frontrunner for QB1, but there’s still lots of time for a backup to emerge. Chauncy Cobb is back in A-State’s receiving group after logging 73 catches last year, while Hunter Summers is back in the receiving room as well. Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer also make up a solid 1-2 combo in the Red Wolves’ backfield. On defense, AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes make up a solid pair in the Arkansas State secondary after logging 151 tackles and Brandon Greil put up 54 tackles as well for the safety group. 

Memphis Tigers Recap

The Memphis Tigers come into this game looking to add on to their 27-21 win over the UNLV Rebels last time out to start the year at 1-0. After this game, the Tigers will head on the road for a game against the Boise State Broncos.

Tigers Looking To Stay Hot

Marcus Stokes threw for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 of 26 passing while Jaylin Carter rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown. Manny Covey added 46 rushing yards while Stokes chipped in 45 rushing yards. Jemyri Davis added a team-high 3 catches for 62 yards while Stonka Burnside added a 48-yard receiving TD and Hunter Tipton added 3 grabs for 31 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Zach Ruffin led the way with 13 total tackles including 9 solo tackles while Mike Montgomery added 10 total tackles and Elijah Kinsler had a team-high 2.5 sacks. J’Mond Tapp, Joseph Head Jr. and Taylor Burton each had a sack as well in the win.

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Memphis Tigers Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Memphis Tigers will win

• Memphis has won each of its last 13 games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
• Arkansas State has lost each of its last seven games against teams from Tennessee.
• Memphis has covered the spread in each of its last four games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games in September.
• Memphis has won the first half in each of its last nine games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
• Memphis has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won five of its last six games as an underdog.
• Memphis has lost three of its last four games as a favorite.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog.
• Memphis has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a home favorite.
• Arkansas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Memphis has lost the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Arkansas State’s last eight games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Memphis’ last four games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

Memphis Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Tychaun Chapman ranked 22nd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (17.9) last season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Kenyon Clay ranked 7th amongst qualified players for catch rate (90.2%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Memphis ranked 4th among FBS teams for red zone percentage last season (93.8).
• Memphis ranked 6th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game last season (3.2).
• Arkansas State ranked 131st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game last season (9.2).
• Arkansas State ranked 120th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (3.4).

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Memphis Tigers Prediction

I’m on Arkansas State and the points. This is a big sandwich spot for Memphis, with a big game against Boise State next week that could have massive playoff implications for the group of 6. On the other side, A-State has some growing to do and learning on the fly, but there’s still some continuity in Arkansas State’s receiving group and I think having one eye on next week could make things a bit dicey for Memphis. Give me the Red Wolves and the points.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Arkansas State +10.5