Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction College Football Picks 11/9/24

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 3-6 (2-3) this season after they defeated UTEP by a score of 20-13 in their last game. Middle Tennessee was tied 10 at halftime and they trailed 13-10 in the third, but they scored the final 10 points in the game for the win. The Blue Raiders outgained UTEP by a total of 333-305, lost the turnover battle 3-1, and went 3-13 on third down in the game. Nicholas Vattiato threw for 239 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Myles Butler caught five passes for 101 yards and one score. 

Prior to that win, the Blue Raiders lost to Jacksonville State by a score of 42-20 but did beat Kennesaw State by a score of 14-5 before that. The MTSU offense has scored 17.9 points per game with 259.7 passing yards and 78.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 33.7 points per game this season. Nicholas Vattiato has completed 63.8% of his passes for 2,296 yards, 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Omari Kelly has caught 48 passes for 811 yards and three scores. 

Why Liberty will cover

• The favorite has won each of Middle Tennessee's last seven games at Johnny Floyd Stadium.
• Middle Tennessee has lost nine of its last 10 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games.
• The favorite has covered the spread in six of Middle Tennessee's last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Middle Tennessee's last five home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of Liberty's last four games as a road favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Middle Tennessee ranks 133rd among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (65.4).
• Middle Tennessee ranks 132nd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (3.6).
• Liberty ranks 9th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (228.6).
• Liberty ranks 10th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.1).

Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction 

Liberty comes into this matchup trying to snap a two-game losing streak and they have quickly fallen out of control in the C-USA standings. The Flames have had a very easy schedule this season, but the loss to Kennesaw State two weeks ago came out of nowhere. Middle Tennessee has won two of their last three games, but they are allowing over 33 points per game this year. I don’t trust this Middle Tennessee defense against any team that is average or better, so give me Liberty on the road here.