UCONN vs Duke Prediction College Football Picks 9/14/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UConn Huskies

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Duke Blue Devils

Recent betting trends in games played between UConn and Duke

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UConn vs Duke game

UConn Huskies Betting Preview

The Huskies’ 2024 season opened up versus Maryland. In that one UConn gave up points in every quarter on the way to a blowout loss of 50-7. QB Joe Fagnano posted 149 pass yards, one TD, and one pick. Skyler Bell led the receivers with five catches for 141 yards.

In their second game versus Merrimack, the Huskies stormed out to a 35-7 advantage by the end of the first quarter. UConn would ultimately take the blowout win 63-17. Fagnano had 328 yards and a whopping five scores (with one more rushing). Bell topped the receivers again with two grabs for 105 yards and a TD.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Over on the Duke side, they opened up the year with a blowout win over Elon. The Blue Devils were up 19-0 after three quarters and cruised to the win 26-3. Maalik Murphy posted 291 pass yards, two scores, and a pick. Jordan Moore caught seven balls for 112 yards.

Game two was another victory for Duke, this time versus Northwestern. The Blue Devils needed two overtimes for the road win, eking it out 26-20. Murphy tossed for 242 yards, three TDs, and one interception. Moore was great again on 11 grabs, 121 yards, and a TD.

Why the Duke Blue Devils will win

• Connecticut has lost each of its last 10 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Duke has won each of its last seven September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has covered the spread in five of Connecticut's last six games.
• Connecticut has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three road games against non-conference opponents.
• Duke has won the first half in 13 of its last 17 games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Connecticut Huskies will win

• Connecticut has won three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The underdog has covered the spread in six of Duke's last seven games.
• Duke has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Connecticut's last five games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of Duke's last four games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Duke ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage this season (1.000).
• Duke ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 win percentage this season (1.000).

UConn vs Duke Prediction

I’m going with Duke. Probably not touching this one, though. The Blue Devils were a mixed bag versus Northwestern in their latest win. The defense was solid on 287 yards allowed (158 passing), 19 first downs, and 3-of-16 given up on third-down tries. Duke also came up with a pair of turnovers.

On offense, Duke had a few issues in their last game. The 342 total yards (249 passing) weren’t bad, but the Blue Devils had two turnovers, and nine penalties (not totally the offense’s fault) and went just 4-of-15 on third-down conversions. Duke should be more comfortable in a home game here though, so I think they’ve got a decent shot at a cover.