Southern Miss vs Kentucky Prediction College Football Picks 8/31/24

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats were 7-6 (3-5) last season and they finished tied for fourth in the SEC East standings with South Carolina and Florida. Kentucky started 2023 with five straight wins and their offense was looking very good, but they lost the next three games against Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee. The Wildcats did bounce back with a win over Mississippi State but lost two of their final three regular season games. Kentucky lost to Clemson by a score of 38-35 in the Gator Bowl. 

Kentucky will have a new starting quarterback this season and their leading rusher is gone, so they will have to rebuild the offense. The Wildcats did bring in Trayanum at running back from Ohio State and the wide receiver talent is there, but losing Leary and Davis from last season is a big concern. 

Why Kentucky will cover

• Kentucky has won 21 of its last 22 games against non-conference opponents at Kroger Field.
• Southern Miss has lost each of its last seven road games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Kentucky has covered the spread in four of its last five season openers.
• Kentucky has won the first half in 20 of its last 26 games against non-conference opponents.

Why Southern Miss will cover

• Kentucky has lost six of its last eight games.
• Southern Miss has covered the spread in seven of its last nine season openers.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of Southern Miss' last 13 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Kentucky's last four games at Kroger Field have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Kentucky ranked T19th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (8.2).
• Kentucky was one of only 22 FBS teams to lose 2+ games when leading after Q3 last season.
• Southern Miss suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 35+ points of any FBS team last season (2).
• Southern Miss suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (2).

Southern Miss vs Kentucky Prediction 

Kentucky comes into this season with some questions surrounding their offense, but they will look for another hot start to the season as they had in 2023. I am worried about the Kentucky quarterback situation, but they should find success against a below-average Southern Miss defense. The Golden Eagles also had a lot of turnover from last year, but they should be in decent shape at quarterback. I think this could be an ugly game from both sides and points could be at a premium, so I am taking the under in this matchup.