UMass vs Liberty Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

Liberty Flames (10-0) vs Massachusetts Minutemen (3-7)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Williams Stadium)

Betting Odds: Liberty Flames -27.5 -- Over/Under: 63.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Massachusetts Minutemen will play the Liberty Flames in a non-conference game on Saturday afternoon at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia. Massachusetts has won two games in a row, while Liberty comes into this matchup with an undefeated record. 

UMass Preview

The Massachusetts Minutemen are 3-7 this season after they defeated Merrimack by a score of 31-21 in their last game. UMass trailed 7-0 in the first quarter but they scored the next 31 points for the win. The Minutemen out gained Merrimack by a total of 359-226 and ran the ball for 255 yards. UMass also defeated Army by a score of 21-14 in the game prior. The Massachusetts offense is averaging 23.5 points per game with 204.6 passing yards per game and 154.9 rushing yards per game, while going 37.7% on third downs. Taisun Phommachanh has thrown for 1,038 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Minutemen this season. Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has rushed for 1,014 yards and nine scores, while Anthony Simpson has caught 45 passes for 637 yards and three touchdowns. The UMass defense is allowing 37.4 points against per game this season.

Liberty Preview

The Liberty Flames are 10-0 (7-0) this year after they defeated Old Dominion by a score of 38-10 last week. Liberty scored the first 29 points in this game and they were able to coast to the victory in the second half. The Flames out gained ODU by a total of 455-280 and held their opponent to 7-22 on third down. Liberty has scored 38 points or more in four straight games and has dominated C-USA this year. The Flames offense is scoring 39 points per game with 218.4 passing yards per game and 278 rushing yards per game, while going 49.6% on third downs. Kaidon Salter has thrown for 2,184 yards, 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Flames this season, while also rushing for 705 yards and nine touchdowns. Quinton Cooley has rushed for 1,066 yards and nine scores, while CJ Daniels has caught 37 passes for 792 yards and eight touchdowns. The Liberty defense is giving up 20.7 points against per game this year.

Liberty Flames Team Facts

  • Liberty has won each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Liberty has covered the spread in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
  • Liberty has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
  • Liberty has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
  • Five of Liberty's last six games against non-conference opponents at Arthur L. Williams Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Massachusetts Minutemen Team Facts

  • Massachusetts has lost 17 of its last 18 games in November.
  • Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
  • Massachusetts has lost the first half in 27 of its last 32 games against non-conference opponents.
  • Seven of Massachusetts' last nine games against opponents from the Conference USA have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Liberty are one of only 24 FBS teams undefeated in home games this season ([z-0]).
  • Liberty rank T34th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.7).
  • Massachusetts has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).


Liberty comes into this game looking to continue their undefeated season, as they are two wins away from a perfect regular season. Massachusetts is only 3-7 on the season, but they have won two games in a row. The Flames have been electric on offense for most of this season and this UMass defense has allowed 63 points to Penn State, 41 points to Toledo, and 52 points to Arkansas State. I think we are going to see plenty of points in this game and I am taking the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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