New Mexico vs UMass Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Massachusetts Minutemen (1-3) vs New Mexico Lobos (1-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium)

Betting Odds: Massachusetts Minutemen -3.5 -- Over/Under: 50.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Mexico Lobos will play the UMass Minutemen in a non-conference game on Saturday afternoon at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts. New Mexico has started the season winless against FBS schools, while UMass has lost three games in a row.

New Mexico Preview

The New Mexico Lobos are 1-2 this season after they lost to New Mexico State by a score of 27-17 last week. New Mexico led 10-7 in the second quarter, but was out scored by a total of 20-7 to end the game with the loss. The Lobos out gained New Mexico State by a total of 401-397 and turned the ball over once in the game. New Mexico defeated Tennessee Tech by a score of 56-10 in Week 2, but lost to Texas A&M by a score of 52-10 in their opener. The New Mexico offense is averaging 35.7 points per game with 223 passing yards per game and 180.3 rushing yards per game, while going 44.1% on third down attempts. Dylan Hopkins has thrown for 635 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Lobos this season. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has rushed for 295 yards and five scores, while Duece Jones has caught five passes for 125 yards and one touchdown this year. The New Mexico defense is giving up 29.7 points against per game this season. 

UMass Preview

The UMass Minutemen are 1-3 this season after they lost to Eastern Michigan by a score of 19-17 in their last game. UMass was tied at 10 going into the fourth quarter and they led 17-13 with two minutes left, but allowed EMU to score the game winning touchdown with 1:20 left. The Minutemen out gained EMU by a total of 464-371, but they turned the ball over four times in the loss. UMass opened the season with a win over New Mexico State by a score of 41-30, but lost to Auburn 59-14 and Miami (OH) 41-28 in the next two games. The UMass offense is scoring 25 points per game with 234.3 passing yards per game and 130.8 rushing yards per game, while going 32.7% on third downs. Carlos Davis has thrown for 690 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Minutemen this year. Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has rushed for 366 yards and three scores, while Anthony Simpson has caught 14 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown. The UMass defense is allowing 37.3 points against per game this year. 

Massachusetts Minutemen Team Facts

  • Massachusetts has lost 36 of its last 39 games.
  • Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home games.
  • Massachusetts has lost the first half in eight of its last nine home games against non-conference opponents.
  • Five of Massachusetts' last six home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico Lobos Team Facts

  • New Mexico has lost 20 of its last 21 road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico has lost the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
  • Eight of New Mexico's last 10 road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • New Mexico ranked 18th among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (9.6).
  • New Mexico suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team last season (10).


New Mexico comes into this game looking for their first win over another FBS team this year, while UMass is looking to try and snap a three game losing streak. UMass opened the season with a win over New Mexico State, but hasn’t found much success in the last three games. Both of these teams are not good and they have allowed a ton of yards on defense, but I am going to take the home team here. UMass had a chance to beat Eastern Michigan in their last game and I think they will build off of that momentum here. Take the Minutemen. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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