Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Prediction 5/24/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Atlanta Dream meet Sunday in WNBA action from the State Farm Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream prediction.

Matchup History

The Atlanta Dream won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on August 10th, 2025, by a final score of 74-66 to make it three straight wins in this head-to-head matchup.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from their 97-88 loss at the hands of Los Angeles last time out to sit at 2-4 this season. After this game, the Mercury head on the road for a game against the New York Liberty.

Mercury Lose 4 Of Last 5

Entering the game against the Sparks, Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 17.8 PPG along with 2.6 APG while Alyssa Thomas has 16.6 PPG with 7.2 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 15.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 11 PPG with 7.3 RPG this season. Natasha Mack has 10.4 PPG with 8.6 RPG to lead the Mercury in rebounding and to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. 

Atlanta Dream Recap

The Atlanta Dream come into this game looking to add on to their 86-69 win over the Dallas Wings last time out to sit at 3-1 this season. After this game, the Dream will head on the road for a game against the Minnesota Lynx.

Dream Looking For Another Win Streak

Going into the game against Dallas, Allisha Gray leads the Dream in scoring with 25 PPG along with 7 RPG while Jordin Canada has 14 PPG with 4.5 RPG and 5.3 APG to lead the Dream in assists. Rhyne Howard has 14.5 PPG with 4.5 RPG and 4.5 APG and Angel Reese has 10.7 PPG with 12.7 RPG to lead the Dream in rebounding by averaging a double-double per game while rounding out the group of double-digit scorers for Atlanta so far this season. Te-Hina Paopao also has 9 PPG with 3.3 RPG as well on the year.

Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream Betting Trends: May 24, 2026

Why the Atlanta Dream will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 12 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Dream have won each of their last nine day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 12 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Dream have covered the spread in each of their last seven home games against the Mercury.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last three games between the Dream and Mercury.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the last seven games between the Dream and Mercury.
• The Dream have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games against Mercury teams that held a losing record.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of the Mercury’s last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of the Dream’s last nine day games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Dream Player Facts

• Jordin Canada is the only player in the league to have recorded 6+ steals in a game this season.
• Angel Reese has recorded 8+ rebounds in 10 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• DeWanna Bonner ranks T1st amongst qualified players for FT% (100.0%) this season.
• Natasha Mack ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (69.4%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for rebounds per game this season (42.5).
• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for offensive rebounds per game this season (11.5).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (10.0).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for free throws made per game this season (22.0).

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction

I’m on the Dream here. I just haven’t been impressed with the Mercury to this point and I just feel like there’s far more upside with the Dream in this spot who finally showed something in their first game of the year that wasn’t decided by 5 points or less. I think the Dream beat up on the Mercury here so give me Atlanta.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta -5.5