Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 8/22/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Atlanta Dream and the Phoenix Mercury meet Saturday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Atlanta Dream won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on August 5th, 2026, by a final score of 96-82, making it five straight wins for the Dream in this head-to-head matchup.

Atlanta Dream Recap

The Atlanta Dream come into this game looking to add on to their 124-88 win over the Sparks last time out to sit at 23-13 this season. After this game, the Dream will have a rematch against the Sparks in Los Angeles.

Dream Win 4 Of Last 5

Allisha Gray has 19.2 PPG along with 3.1 RPG while Jordin Canada has 11.3 PPG with 3.7 RPG and 7.7 APG to lead the Dream in assists. Rhyne Howard has 16.9 PPG with 3.9 RPG and 3.5 APG and Angel Reese has 15.8 PPG with 11.6 RPG to lead the Dream in rebounding by averaging a double-double per game and rounding out the group of double-digit scorers for Atlanta so far this season. Naz Hillmon also has 9.3 PPG with 4.4 RPG as well on the year.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from an 88-85 loss at the hands of the Fire last time out to sit at 13-23 this season. After this game, the Mercury will take on the Mystics in a matchup at home.

Mercury Lose 4 Of Last 5

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.9 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.9 PPG with 7.1 RPG and a team-high 8.3 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 10.2 PPG with 5.8 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 8.8 PPG with 7.4 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.

Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: August 22, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Dream have lost each of their last 11 Saturday night games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have won five of the Dream’s last six games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Dream have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine Saturday night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the Dream’s last seven games at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Why the Atlanta Dream will win

• The Dream have won each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last five games against Dream teams that held a winning record.
• The Dream have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games following a road win.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as home underdogs following a home loss.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Dream’s last eight games as favorites following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between the Mercury and Dream have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas has recorded 5+ rebounds and 5+ assists in 12 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Kahleah Copper has made 3+ free throws in eight consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.

Atlanta Dream Player Facts

• Angel Reese ranks 1st amongst qualified players for rebounds per game (11.9) this season.
• Jordin Canada is the only player in the league to have recorded 7+ steals in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for blocks per game this season (3.2).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (36.2%).
• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for offensive rebounds per game this season (10.8).
• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for opponent offensive rebounds per game this season (6.4).

Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m backing the Dream here. I’m not the biggest fan of laying points with Atlanta, but it beats the alternative right now of backing Phoenix, who continue to find new and creative ways to disappoint after a decent run out of the all-star break. I think the Dream are starting to warm up at the right time and I’m looking for the Dream to get the win and cover here. Give me Atlanta.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta -6.5