Pick details
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk
10:00 AM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Mirra Andreeva -154 / Marta Kostyuk +120
Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Preview
Mirra Andreeva is coming off a straight sets win over World No. 32 Hailey Baptiste. Andreeva sealed a 6-4, 7-6 over the American, who had beaten World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka a round earlier. Only one break was the difference between them in the first set, which Andreeva clinched in 40 minutes. But there was plenty of drama in the second set, and Baptiste nearly pulled off another escape. Andreeva broke to lead 3-2 and the Russian had her first match point at 5-4 on Baptiste’s serve. But Andreeva couldn’t take it and she was broken in the next game. Baptiste forced a tiebreak and had three set points to take the match into a deciding set. But each time, Andreeva saved it, and the World No. 8 eventually converted her fourth match point to reach the final.In the victory, Andreeva hit 3 aces and 1 double fault. She landed 69% of first serves in play and won 81% of first serve points (35/43). Andreeva won 68% of second serve points (13/19) and was broken once in the match. Andreeva is seeking her third title of 2026 after winning in Adelaide and Linz.
Marta Kostyuk, meanwhile, beat lucky loser Anastasia Potapova in three topsy-turvy sets to advance to her first WTA 1000 final at the Madrid Open. For the first time this fortnight, Kostyuk lost a set, but the Ukrainian extended her excellent win streak to 11 matches with a 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 victory over Potapova.
In the victory, Kostyuk hit 1 ace and 5 double faults. She landed 53% of first serves in play and won 54% of first serve points (21/39). Kostyuk won 53% of second serve points (18/34) and saved eight of 12 break points. Kostyuk has now won her last 11 matches. She is seeking her second title of the season.
Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Head-To-Head
Andreeva and Kostyuk have played once at the WTA level. That match was at the 2026 Brisbane International. Kostyuk won in straight sets.Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction
Andreeva is unquestionably the most talented teenager in the world right now, but she must face an in-form Kostyuk, who has enjoyed a breakout run in Madrid. It’s the Ukrainian’s first final in a WTA 1000, but could we have seen a potential dip in Kostyuk’s game in that semifinal? She did drop a set for the first time this fortnight, but it was a blip. That said, if her shot variety and composure are inconsistent under pressure, she will be punished. I’ll side with Andreeva. I think she has the shot tolerance to outwit Kostyuk.
Nur Said's Pick: Andreeva in three sets
