Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca Prediction 4/26/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Tommy Paul and Joao Fonseca meet in the second round of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Saturday, April 26, 2025. Here’s our Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca prediction. This preview will also include a Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca pick.

Tommy Paul Preview

Tommy Paul is the 11th seed at the Madrid Open. Paul is ranked 12th in the world rankings, which is three spots below his previous career high ranking. This will be his second clay-court tournament of the season, having partaken in Houston in early April and lost in the semifinal to eventual champion Jenson Brooksby in one of the most dramatic matches of the season. 

Paul is making his fifth visit to Madrid. Last year, he reached the third round, which remains his best achievement in this ATP 1000 event. He has lost in the second round twice and once in the first round. 

Paul is 15-6 for the season and has reached the quarterfinals or better in four of the seven tournaments he has played in 2025. Last year, he compiled a 10-4 record on clay. Paul has won six of his last nine matches.

Joao Fonseca Preview

Joao Fonseca made a winning return in the first round of the Madrid Open. Fonseca was playing in his first tournament of this year’s European clay swing. He defeated Danish qualifier Elmer Moller in straight sets. The match took 17 games to decide. Fonseca prevailed 6-2, 6-3 in an hour and 13 minutes. Fonseca broke Moller twice in the first set, which took only 36 minutes.

The second set was a close one, but Fonseca earned the break he needed in the fifth game and consolidated to register his second win at the Madrid Open. Fonseca finished the match with five aces and one double fault. He landed 70% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (27/37). Fonseca won 50% of second serve points (8/16) and did not face a breakpoint in the match. He hit 16 winners and 26 unforced errors.

Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca Head-To-Head

Paul and Fonseca have never met at any level. This will be their first ATP meeting.

Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

Paul starts as the underdog here at +130, and I think he’s not getting much respect from the bookies. He’s the 11th seed and the USA’s No. 2 player, playing against a rising star, who is not quite fully fledged. Fonseca has a ton of potential and talent no doubt, but Paul is still more experienced and more polished, and he knows what it takes to break down Fonseca mentally and physically on this fast court. There is value in backing Paul here, who is seriously undervalued. He’s proven and the seasoned vet in this matchup, and we are not letting these odds slip away.

Nur Said's Pick: Tommy Paul in three sets