Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction 2/18/25 Doha Tennis Picks

Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini clash in the first round of the 2025 ATP Qatar Open in Doha on Tuesday, February 18, 2025. Here’s our Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini prediction. This preview will also include a Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini pick.

Novak Djokovic Preview

Novak Djokovic will play in his first tournament since retiring hurt in January’s Australian Open. Djokovic was forced to retire from his match against Alexander Zverev in the semifinals in Melbourne after just one set.

The World No. 7 has posted a 7-2 record for the season. His one completed loss was in the quarterfinals of Brisbane (lost to Reilly Opelka).

Djokovic is a two-time champion of the Qatar Open, winning the title in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017. But he hasn’t appeared in the main draw in Doha since 2019. 

Djokovic is currently ranked 7th in the ATP rankings and hasn’t lifted a Tour-level title since 2023.

Matteo Berrettini Preview

Matteo Berrettini will be competing at the ATP Qatar Open for just the third time in his career. Berrettini’s two previous appearances in Doha were not particularly successful. He lost in the last 16 on his debut seven years ago and got knocked out in the opening round in 2019.

The Italian enjoyed a resurgent 2024 season. Berrettini won three ATP titles, all on clay, which is not his favorite court surface. Last year, he won just seven of 13 matches on outdoor hard courts.

Berrettini started the 2025 season competing in Brisbane where he fell to a first-round loss against Jordan Thompson. His next tournament was the Australian Open. He lost in the second round to Holger Rune in four sets. 

Berrettini was last in action in Rotterdam and lost in the first round to Tallon Griekspoor. Overall, the former Wimbledon finalist has posted one win from four matches.

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini Head-To-Head

• Djokovic and Berretini have played four times on the ATP Tour.

• Djokovic has a 100% winning record in the head-to-head but hasn’t met Berretini since the 2021 season.

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

The price on Berrettini is absolutely insane here. While Djokovic is rightfully the favorite for this match (leads the h2h 4-0), I don’t think he justifies being a -625 clear-cut for the win. He’s still a man capable of raising his level, but at 37 he is nearly a diminished force and the results over the past year indicate so. Consistency has been lacking and there are also question marks when it comes to his motivation.

Djokovic doesn’t settle for anything less than a title in any tournament he plays, and by his own high standards that didn’t materialize for the whole of last season. Injuries are also becoming much more frequent these days. Getting Berrettini at +450 is too big a price to turn down.