Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko Prediction 8/7/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Naomi Osaka will face Canadian wild card Victoria Mboko in the final of the 2025 National Bank Open in Montreal. The match is scheduled for Thursday, August 7. Here’s our Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko prediction. This preview will also include a Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko pick.

Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko Preview

Naomi Osaka reached her first WTA final at this level since 2022, with the Japanese star posting her best run in a tournament since returning to the tour as a mother. Osaka has dropped one set in six matches in Montreal, having not gone beyond the quarterfinals in this tournament. Osaka started the fortnight working with Iga Swiatek’s former coach, Tomasz Wiktorowski, and the two have clearly built some chemistry. Osaka has looked like a different player without a doubt, and the tumbling of seeds has also helped her cause.

Osaka is coming off a 6-2, 7-6 win over in-form Clara Tauson, avenging a retirement defeat to the Dane in Auckland. The match lasted an hour and 48 minutes. Osaka hit four aces and three double faults in the victory. She landed 52% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (30/40). Osaka won 54% of second serve points (20/37) and saved seven of nine break points. Osaka is a seven-time champion on the WTA Tour and won a WTA 25K title in Saint-Malo earlier this year on clay.

Victoria Mboko continues to create more history as the Canadian wild card upset yet another big name to reach her first-ever WTA final. The 18-year-old had earlier in the tournament defeated top seed Coco Gauff in straight sets, but produced her best performance in taking down former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in Wednesday’s semifinals. After dropping the first set 6-1 in half an hour, Mboko leveled the match by breaking Rybakina’s serve in the 12th game, having earlier squandered the chance to serve for the set.

In the decider, Mboko was first to blink, as Rybakina broke for a 4-2 lead and the Kazakh had the match on her racket when she served for it at 5-4. Rybakina missed a match point at 40-30, and then lost a second opportunity to serve for the match at 6-5 up. Mboko capitalized on Rybakina’s wastefulness and won the deciding tie-break 7-4. Mboko will become a Top 40 player after the tournament and could even break the Top 30 with a title win.

Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko Head-To-Head

Osaka and Mboko have not played each other at any level.

Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko Prediction

Underestimating Mboko has been a recipe for disaster all tournament. This is the best run by a Canadian player on home turf since Andreescu won this tournament some years ago. The WTA tour has seen many one-match wonders, but Mboko is the real deal, having backed up wins over Sofia Kenin and Coco Gauff by ousting Elena Rybakina in a dramatic semifinal. And the crowd will be on her side in the final. Osaka can tap into her experience, having won some big finals in her career against the most accomplished women in tennis history, but her mental toughness remains a liability – it is something that new coach Wiktorowski is working on, and his impact has been tangible. That said, Mboko has boxed above her weight in this tournament, and this Cinderella run could well have that fitting finale.

Nur Said's Pick: Over 21.5 games in the match