Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction 3/24/25 Miami Tennis Picks

Naomi Osaka and Jasmine Paolini clash in the fourth round of the 2025 WTA Miami Open on Monday, March 24, 2025. Here’s our Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini prediction. This preview will also include a Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini pick.

Naomi Osaka Preview

Naomi Osaka ended the spirited run of American wild card Hailey Baptiste in the third round. The match took 32 games to decide. Osaka prevailed 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 in three hours.

In the victory, Osaka hit 33 winners and 52 unforced errors. That included 13 aces and four double faults. Osaka landed 59% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (42/61). The unseeded Osaka won 51% of second serve points (22/43) and saved five of 10 break points.

Osaka compiled 41% of return points (48/118) and broke Baptiste five times in the match. The Japanese former World No. 1 picked up her 9th win of the season. 

Osaka was on a three-match losing run before Miami but has won three matches this week. She is a former finalist in this tournament (2022).

Jasmine Paolini Preview

Jasmine Paolini played for half an hour before securing progress into the second week in Miami. The Italian led Ons Jabeur 4-3 in the first set of the third-round match before the Tunisian retired with an injury.

In the victory, Paolini has tallied six winners and four unforced errors. She has saved two of three break points. Paolini had accounted for a win over Rebecca Sramkova in the second round. Overall, she has compiled a 10-5 record for the season.

It’s the first time she’ll play for a quarterfinal spot in Miami, having lost to Emma Navarro in the third round last season. Paolini has won six of her last nine matches.

Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini Head-To-Head

• Osaka and Paolini have never met at any level. This will be their first meeting. 

Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction

I’m going Osaka here. Granted both players have nursed at least one injury issue this season, Osaka has impressed me the most with her tenacity and resilience. And she’s also a more consistent shot-maker than Paolini, with a better and bigger serve and incredible groundstroke power. Paolini is struggling this season with just one win against a top 50 opponent (for completed matches). That’s a stat that doesn’t inspire so much confidence even as she opens as an underdog at plus money.