Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction 5/11/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner faces Alexei Popyrin in the third round of the ATP Rome Masters on Monday, May 11. Here’s our Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin prediction. This preview will also include a Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin pick.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Preview

Jannik Sinner began his 2026 Rome Masters campaign with a straight sets win over World No. 82 Sebastian Ofner. The match took 19 games to decide. Sinner prevailed 6-3, 6-4 in an hour and 31 minutes. In the victory, Sinner hit 19 winners and 16 unforced errors. Sinner fired 3 aces and accumulated a single double fault.

Sinner landed 61% of first serves in play and won 82% of first serve points (27/33). Sinner won 71% of second serve points (15/21) and did not face a break point on serve. Sinner won 39% of return points in the match and broke Ofner’s serve twice. This was Sinner’s 24th consecutive win as he chases a sixth successive Masters title.

Alexei Popyrin has taken some big names to reach the third round of the Rome Masters. The Australian won a heavy-hitting contest against Matteo Berrettini in straight sets. Popyrin defeated the Italian 6-2, 6-3 for just his fifth win of the season. But it was in the second round that he registered a much bigger shock. 

Starting as a +200 underdog, Popyrin beat the Czech 26th seed, Jakub Mensik, in three sets. The match took 27 games to decide. Popyrin prevailed 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 in two hours and 12 minutes. In the victory, Popyrin conjured 22 winners and 12 unforced errors. He fired 7 aces and 4 double faults. Popyrin landed 67% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (40/53). Popyrin won 50% of second serve points (13/26) and saved five of seven break points.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Head-To-Head

Sinner leads Popyrin 2-1 in the head-to-head. Sinner has won each of their last two matches in straight sets, one of which was at the 2026 Qatar Open. Remarkably, Popyrin’s only win was on clay at the 2021 Madrid Open.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Popyrin has punched above his weight in the opening week of the Rome Masters, taking out Berrettini and the much-fancied Jakub Mensik. He barely had any form or wins coming to Rome, but he’s played some clutch tennis to reach the third round. But the outcome feels almost inevitable here as he faces the juggernaut that is Jannik Sinner. Sinner is 24-0 since Doha, winning every title on offer, and it would take a brave man to bet against him not to add to his trophy cabinet this week.

Nur Said's Pick: Sinner to win AND under 19.5 games