Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul Prediction 4/30/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Jack Draper and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Here’s our Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul prediction. This preview will also include a Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul pick.

Jack Draper Preview

Jack Draper advanced into the round of 16 at the Madrid Open for the first time. He led Matteo Berrettini by a set, and shortly after, the Italian retired with an injury. Draper won that titanic first set in a tie-break after 58 minutes. He compiled three aces and landed 73% of first serves in play. Draper won 73% of first serve points (22/30) and 55% of second serve points (6/11). He saved one of two breakpoints.

Draper’s only completed win of the tournament so far was in his opening match against Tallon Griekspoor. He beat the Dutchman 6-3, 6-4 to record his third career win in Madrid. Draper has reached two quarterfinals on clay at the Tour level, but none of those at the ATP 1000 level. But in a season where he has broken new ground, winning a first Masters in Indian Wells and rising to a career-high No. 6, nothing is impossible for Britain’s new tennis star.

Tommy Paul Preview

Tommy Paul is the 11th seed at the Madrid Open and is coming off a three-set win over Karen Khachanov in the last round. Paul won 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in an hour and 44 minutes. He broke Khachanov’s serve once in the first set. Paul had chances to take a 2-1 lead in the second set, but missed out on converting any of three break points in the third game.

And the Russian made him pay when he got a late break before serving to love to level the match. Paul finished the match strongly, getting successive breaks late on to win the final set at a canter. Paul had never reached the round of 16 in Madrid before, but is now within one win of the quarterfinals. He had earlier accounted for an impressive win over Joao Fonseca that set his campaign rolling. Paul has won four of his five matches. 

Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head

Draper and Paul have met five times on the ATP level. Draper leads 3-2 with four of those meetings taking place last season. Paul won their most recent match at Queen’s and went on to lift the title. This will be their first match on clay.

Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul Prediction

This should be a great match, with shot-making at its finest. Draper starts as the favorite according to the oddsmakers, but Paul is one of the smartest counterpunchers in the game. He’s also versatile, meaning he can seamlessly turn defense into attack pretty quickly midway through a rally. On clay, patience and consistency are paramount, and if Draper cannot keep his attack-minded game in fine working order, he’ll be drawn into errors. His footwork on clay is still a work in progress. I’m backing Paul here; he’s the better player on this surface and has the attacking prowess to win this match.

Nur Said's Pick: Tommy Paul in three sets