Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Prediction 3/11/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova meet in the fourth round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. Here’s our Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova prediction. This article will also include an Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova pick.

Iga Swiatek Preview

Iga Swiatek dropped just two games in a straight sets drubbing of Dayana Yastremska. The match took 14 games to decide in 66 minutes. In the victory, Swiatek hit 14 winners and 18 unforced errors. That tally included one ace and one double fault. The second seed landed 48% of first serves in play and won 80% of first serve points (16/20).

Swiatek won 64% of second serve points (14/22) and did not face a break point on her serve. The Pole won 56% of return points (28/50) and broke Yastremska’s serve five times. Swiatek extends her unbeaten run in Indian Wells to eight matches. She has also not lost a set in any of those matches.

Swiatek has won 16 of 20 matches this year but hasn’t lifted a WTA title.

Karolina Muchova Preview

Karolina Muchova is coming off a straight sets win over fellow Czech Katerina Siniakova. The match took 19 games to decide and lasted an hour and 38 minutes. Muchova prevailed 7-5, 6-1. In the victory, Muchova hit 22 winners and 21 unforced errors. That included four aces and one double fault.

Muchova landed 52% of first serves in play and won 68% of first serve points (23/34). The 15th seed won 48% of second serve points (15/31) and saved two of five break points in the match. Muchova compiled 57% of return points (34/60) and converted six of 10 break points.

This was Muchova’s 11th win from 16 matches in 2025. She has now won six of her last seven matches. Muchova was a quarterfinalist in her last visit to Indian Wells (2023).

Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Head-To-Head

• Swiatek and Muchova have met four times on the WTA level.

• Swiatek leads Muchova 3-1, winning their last three matches, including earlier this year at the United Cup.

Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Prediction

You fear the worst for Muchova here when it comes to the final scoreline. Here’s the scary stat. Swiatek has won each of her last eight matches in Indian Wells in straight sets. Five of the 16 sets she has played and won are bagel sets (6-0). She has also not dropped more than four games in a set in that time. The size of Muchova’s task is near impossible. But look, she was in this situation before, most notably in the 2023 Roland Garros final and she almost did the unthinkable. I reckon she’ll put in a much better performance than all of Swiatek’s last eight opponents in this tournament, but victory will just be beyond reach.