Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert Prediction 3/9/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Holger Rune and Ugo Humbert meet in the third round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday, March 9, 2025. Here’s our Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert prediction. This article will also include a Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert pick.

Holger Rune Preview

Holger Rune is coming off a 6-2, 6-4 win over France’s Corentin Moutet which took about an hour and 32 minutes of playing time. The 12th seed recorded 12 winners and 17 unforced errors. From this, two were aces and one double fault.

Rune landed 68% of first serves in play and won 71% of first serve points in the match (24/34). The Dane won 56% of second serve points (9/16) and saved three of five break points on his serve.

Rune tallied 51% of return points won (32/63) and broke Moutet five times in the match. It’s the third year in a row he’s reached at least the third round in Indian Wells. Rune improves to 7-6 for the season. Rune has won four of his last seven matches in all competitions.

Ugo Humbert Preview

Ugo Humbert defeated Kei Nishikori in straight sets to reach the third round in Indian Wells. The match took 19 games to decide and lasted 89 minutes.

In the victory, Humbert hit 23 winners and 31 unforced errors. That included seven aces and three double faults. Humbert landed 50% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (27/35).

The Frenchman won just 49% of second serve points (17/35) and saved four of six break points on his serve. Humbert recorded 47% of return points (22/47) and broke Nishikori four times in the match.

This is also the third time Humbert has made the third round in Indian Wells. But he’s never advanced beyond this stage. Humbert has won 11 of 14 matches in 2025. Humbert has won seven of his last eight matches.

Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert Head-To-Head

• Rune and Humbert have played three times on Tour.

• Rune leads Humbert 3-0 in the head-to-head and beat him in straight sets when they met in Indian Wells three years ago.

Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert Prediction

The odds do align with the reality here with Humbert being pegged as the slight favorite after a fantastic start to the season. But I’m leaning toward Rune despite all the inconveniences and distress before Indian Wells. He looked very comfortable in his opening win. Rune is also one of the most gifted movers on the court, so he won’t be easily bullied by Humbert’s big-hitting or the serve+1. I’ll reiterate, it’s probably a good time for Humbert to break his duck in this matchup, but the Dane shouldn’t go down easily on courts where he’s always found his best level.