Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction 6/3/25 French Open Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 French Open at Roland Garros. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, June 3. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul pick.

Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Ben Shelton in four sets to reach the French Open quarterfinals. For the third time in the tournament, Alcaraz was pushed to four sets in a high-quality match where Shelton played out of his comfort zone and kept Alcaraz at arm’s length.

The first set went on for over an hour. Neither player lost their serve, and Shelton had three set points in the tie-break. Alcaraz saved them all before making Shelton pay just a few moments later. Alcaraz broke Shelton for the first time in the eighth game of the second set and served to love for a two sets lead. With his back against the wall, Shelton knew he had nothing to lose in the third set and began to go for the risky shots. That paid off when he broke Alcaraz right at the end of the set to truncate his lead. However, the American lefty did not seize that momentum and got broken early in the fourth set. Alcaraz prevailed 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 in three hours and 22 minutes.

It’s the third year in a row Alcaraz has advanced to this stage at Roland Garros. He was a seminalist in 2023 and won the title last year. It’s another American who stands between him and a spot in the last four.

Tommy Paul Preview

Tommy Paul became the first American man to reach the French Open quarterfinals in more than two decades. He played with supreme efficiency to beat Australia’s Alexei Popyrin in straight sets. Paul made it look so effortless despite concerns about his health and fatigue. He hit 27 winners and 22 unforced errors. 

Paul landed 61% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (37/54). He won 74% of second serve points (25/34) and saved nine of 10 breakpoints. Paul had won a couple of back-to-back five-setters before the round of 16, beating Marton Fucsovics and Karen Khachanov. He has a 12-3 record on clay courts this season and could leave the tournament with a new career-high ranking.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head

Alcaraz leads Paul 4-2 in the head-to-head and won their only clay meeting at this venue in the 2024 Paris Olympics, also in the quarterfinals.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction

This could be anything. A classic to keep up with some of the battles they have fought between them in their rivalry, or potentially one of the quickest matches of the tournament. I’d go with the latter. This could get messy for Tommy. He’s spent over 10 hours on court and is up against the best player on this surface. Paul’s talent would still earn him a few games, but it’s not a question about his ability but his limits that’s worrying. Alcaraz has a clear path to the semis, and I don’t see this being a competitive contest mirroring their previous matches.

Nur Said's Pick: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets