Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction 9/6/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will face Tommy Paul in the fourth round of the 2026 US Open. The match is scheduled for Sunday, September 6. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul prediction. This preview will include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Preview

Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a straight sets win over China’s Wu Yibing in the third round of the US Open. The match took 26 games to decide. The first two sets were highly entertaining and slightly competitive before Alcaraz eventually established his dominance to win 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 in two hours and 21 minutes. In the victory, Alcaraz hit 21 winners and committed 33 unforced errors. Alcaraz tallied 6 aces and 4 double faults.

Alcaraz landed 67% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (40/58). The Spaniard won 50% of second serve points (14/28) and saved five of seven break points he faced in the match. Before this round at the US Open, Alcaraz beat Roman Safiullin and Jaime Faria. He has dropped just one set so far and that was in the victory over Faria. He improves to 26-3 for the season.

Tommy Paul rallied from two sets to one down to beat Alexander Bublik 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 and reach the second week of the US Open for the third time in his career. Paul avenged last year’s loss to the Kazakh, but he needed all his fighting spirit and imperious shotmaking to win. The match lasted three hours and 15 minutes. In the victory, Paul fired 44 winners and committed 35 unforced errors, including 10 aces and 1 double fault.

Paul landed 66% of first serves in play and won 76% of first serve points (71/93). Paul won 60% of second serve points (29/48) and saved five of seven break points in the match. The American had beaten Coleman Wong and Dino Prizmic in the first two rounds. Paul will look to reach the quarterfinals of the US Open for the first time, but he has never beaten Alcaraz in a major.
 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul have met eight times. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-2. They met at this year’s Australian Open in the last 16 stage and Alcaraz won in three tight sets. Paul’s last win over Alcaraz was at the 2023 Toronto Masters.
 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction

I wouldn’t dismiss Tommy from pushing Alcaraz here. Outside their French Open match last year, their matches haven’t been as straightforward as the head-to-head suggests. Paul brings danger because he’s athletic, aggressive, and bold with his shotmaking, so he does have the point-ending shot for winners, which is not usually the case for most players who face Alcaraz and try to overpower him. Still, I expect Alcaraz to raise his level and get over the line.

Nur Said's Pick: Alcaraz in four sets