Bengals vs Falcons Prediction 11/8/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Bengals vs Falcons Prediction

Cincinnati comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak and they have scored at least 31 points in all three of those wins. The Bengals have some issues with turnovers and the defense isn’t great, but Burrow and the passing attack can be elite. Atlanta has lost three of their last four games and they were miserable in the rain last week in Tampa. The Falcons are better than their recent record would indicate, as they knocked off San Francisco a few weeks ago. This should be a great game, but I am taking Atlanta and the points here.

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-2 this season after they defeated the Titans by a score of 43-36 in overtime last time out. Cincinnati led 14-13 at halftime and 29-28 in the fourth quarter, but they needed a late touchdown to tie the game, before winning in overtime. The Bengals out gained Tennessee by a total of 510-440, went 7-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-2 in the game. Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Tee Higgins caught 10 passes for 155 yards and two scores. Chase Brown rushed 12 times for 55 yards in the win.

Prior to that game, Cincinnati defeated the Ravens by a score of 35-13 and the Dolphins by a score of 31-24. The Bengals have scored 29.4 points per game with 288.4 passing yards and 80.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.6 points against per game this season. Joe Burrow has thrown for 2,115 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions, while Tee Higgins has caught 43 passes for 726 yards and four scores. Chase Brown has led the ground game with 340 yards and one touchdown on 94 carries this season.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-5 this year after they lost to the Buccaneers by a score of 16-0 last week. Atlanta trailed 9-0 at halftime and they couldn’t get anything going in the second half, as the weather really impacted their passing game. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 322-224, went 0-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-1 in the game. Michael Penix Jr threw for 125 yards and four interceptions, while Jahan Dotson caught two passes for 95 yards. Bijan Robinson rushed 19 times for 76 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Atlanta defeated the 49ers by a score of 29-20, but lost to the Bears by a score of 31-23 before that. The Falcons have scored 21.4 points per game with 188.4 passing yards and 134.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.6 points against per game this season. Michael Penix Jr has thrown for 1,282 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions, while Drake London has caught 39 passes for 624 yards and one score. Bijan Robinson has led the rushing attack with 780 yards and four touchdowns on 150 carries this year.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won three of their last four games as underdogs following a Division game.
• The Bengals have lost each of their last four games without Joe Burrow.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games without Joe Flacco.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in each of their last three games as underdogs following a Division loss.
• The Falcons have won the first half in three of their last four games as underdogs at neutral venues.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four Week 9 games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bengals’ last 10 day games against NFC South opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Falcons’ last five games as underdogs without Kyle Pitts have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Drake London has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 16 appearances following a loss.
• Heading into Week 9, Michael Penix Jr. has thrown the most interceptions in a single game this season (4 vs Buccaneers, Week 8).

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

• Joe Burrow has recorded 10+ rushing yards in each of the Bengals’ last four games as favorites following a win.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 305+ passing yards in five of the Bengals’ last six games as favorites with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Chase Brown has recorded 78+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of the Bengals’ last 11 games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Chase Brown has recorded 28+ receiving yards in seven of the Bengals’ last eight November games.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 27+ completions in each of the Bengals’ last four November games as favorites.
• Chase Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bengals’ last six games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 9, Joe Burrow has recorded the most passing yards in a single game this season (462 vs Titans, Week 8).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 9, the Falcons have conceded the lowest score in a single game this season (0-points vs Tampa Bay).
• Heading into Week 9, the Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (134.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 9, the Bengals rank 1st in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (137.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 9, the Bengals rank 1st in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (52.9%) this season.

Positive Trends

As you can see in the trends above, we have some nice angles pointing towards the Falcons. Atlanta has covered the spread in each of their last three games following a division loss as underdogs and they have played well in the first half at neutral site games. Cincinnati has a very strong offense, but I think their defense struggles here. Take the Falcons.

David Racey's Pick: Falcons +3