Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction 07/11/2025 Wimbledon Picks

Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz meet in the semifinals of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships. The match is scheduled for Friday, July 11. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Preview
Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a routine straight sets win over former British No. 1 Cameron Norrie. Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 to reach his third successive Wimbledon semifinal. The two-time defending champion also picked up his 10th straight win on grass, having bagged the ATP 500 at Queen’s before the tournament began last month. 

In the victory over Norrie, Alcaraz hit 39 winners and 26 unforced errors. He accounted for 13 aces and four double faults. Alcaraz landed 72% of first serves in play and won 89% of first serve points (49/55). He won 33% of second serve points (7/21) and saved all five break points in the match. Alcaraz has played one five-set match during the fortnight (beat Fabio Fognini in the opening round) and a couple of four-set matches (defeating Jan Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev).

Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, is the only American left in men’s singles draw. Fritz reached his first Wimbledon semifinal after two previous unsuccessful attempts in the quarterfinals stage. He beat Russia’s Karen Khachanov in four sets. Fritz won the first two sets 6-3, 6-4 in less than two hours. But he lost the third resoundingly, 1-6 in 29 minutes. In the fourth set, Fritz recovered from an early break to win in a tie-break 6-4. Fritz improves his grass record this swing to 13-1, winning two titles, more than anybody else on tour. Can he reach his first Wimbledon final? He has been to a Grand Slam final less than a year ago at the US Open, and is the USA’s biggest hope to end that long barren run of a Major champion.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Head-To-Head
Alcaraz and Fritz have met twice on tour. Alcaraz won both meetings, but this will be their first on grass.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction
Look, Alcaraz is the rightful favorite and will most likely win Wimbledon for a third time this weekend, but we can make a case for Fritz being arguably the fourth-best grass-court player right now. And at this stage of Wimbledon, with just two more matches to win, his stamina will need to shine. And that’s my only concern because he has played a ton of tennis in the last month. So if he is to pull off the mother of all upsets, it would have to be an unrealistic straight sets win. That said, the books are offering serious value on the American here at +400 in a Wimbledon semifinal. Fritz has been locked in throughout this swing and has the game to push Alcaraz. I’ll sit on the minority side and sprinkle the moneyline for a massive shocker.