Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Prediction 4/20/25 Barcelona Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune meet in the final of the 2025 ATP Barcelona Open on Sunday, April 20, 2025. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune pick.

Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Carlos Alcaraz reached his second final of this year’s clay-court swing and his third at the Barcelona Open. To get there, Alcaraz defeated Ethan Quinn in the first round 6-2, 7-6. In the second round, he beat Laslo Djere 6-2, 6-4. In the quarterfinal, he overcame his sternest test against fifth seed Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-3.

The semifinal was a rematch from Monte Carlo this past week, and Alcaraz eased past Arthur Fils 6-2, 6-4 to progress into his third final of 2025. The Spaniard has won two titles already in Rotterdam and in Monte Carlo. Alcaraz was unable to defend the Barcelona Open last year because of injury. He has posted a 24-4 record for the season and recently regained the world number two ranking.

Holger Rune Preview

Holger Rune marched into his first Barcelona Open final. This will be his second final of the season after losing to Jack Draper in Indian Wells. Rune made it there by beating Ramos Vinolas in straight sets in his opener. In the second round, the Dane defeated Sebastian Baez in three sets. Rune overcame Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinals and then took out Karen Khachanov in the semis 6-3, 6-2.

Rune has bounced back superbly after retiring in Monte Carlo this past week. Rune has posted a 15-9 record in 2025 and improves to 4-2 on clay courts. Rune’s last ATP title was on clay in Munich but that was two years ago. Can he end his long drought in Barcelona against the tournament favorite Alcaraz?

Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Head-To-Head

Alcaraz and Rune have met three times in competitive matches on tour. Alcaraz leads Rune 2-1 in the head-to-head and won their last meeting at the 2023 Wimbledon in straight sets. This will be their first match on clay.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Prediction

Alcaraz starts as a -454 favorite to win his third Barcelona Open title. And the only surprise is that he doesn’t open with shorter odds than that. Rune has boxed above his weight this week, considering his recent retirement in Monte Carlo, and he’s snuffed out some exceptional clay-court players in this tournament. But if Alcaraz displays the same level of composure and mobility when working into the rallies and playing crisp shots, he’ll easily bulldoze the Dane. Give me Alcaraz in two.