Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will face Fabio Fognini in the first round of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships on Monday, June 30. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini Preview
Carlos Alcaraz is the second seed at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships. He is the two-time defending champion at the All England Club. Alcaraz is coming off a successful title defense at Roland Garros earlier this month, where he beat Jannik Sinner in an epic final after 5 hours and 29 minutes – the longest final in French Open history. Alcaraz has won the last two Wimbledons, beating 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic each time. He can join a pantheon of tennis greats to win a hat-trick of titles here, but he will face stiff competition to do it.

The Spaniard warmed up for the grass-court major by winning the ATP 500 at Queen’s for the second time in his career. Alcaraz has won 18 successive matches and has an impressive 42-5 record this season. The World No. 2 has won 13 of his last 14 matches on grass. His only defeat at that time was to Jack Draper at Queen’s last season.

Fabio Fognini is ranked 130th in the world rankings and is playing in the Wimbledon main draw for the 15th and potentially last time. Fognini is likely to retire at the end of the season. Although he hasn’t made that announcement, the Italian has shown visible signs of wear and tear in recent years, and his motivation has been questionable at times. He has already played his last Italian Open in Rome in his home country, and that could signal that retirement is imminent. 

Fognini has lost his last five matches on the trot. He will arrive at SW19 without a single win on grass in any of the warm-up tournaments. Last year, Fognini equaled his best result at Wimbledon by reaching the third round, beating Luca Van Assche and Casper Ruud before losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in five sets. This month, he has lost in Stuttgart, Nottingham, and Mallorca, coming to Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini Head-To-Head
Alcaraz and Fognini have met twice on the ATP Tour. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 2-0 and beat Fognini in two clay matches, both in Rio de Janeiro in back-to-back seasons. However, they have never played on grass and haven’t met since 2023. Still, Alcaraz is expected to charge past the veteran on grass.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini Prediction
Alcaraz is the odds-on favorite to progress to the next round. He will have the privilege of opening play on Centre Court on Monday, and the Spaniard has been near invincible this season, winning 42 of 47 matches. He has lost once since the start of April. Fognini is an artist and one of the most flamboyant players on tour, but he’s harmless on grass and at 38, doesn’t have the legs to match up with Alcaraz’s physique. I’m looking at Alcaraz ending this quickly and routinely. Give me the under 27.5 games here.

Nur Said's Pick: Under 27.5 games in the match