Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction 4/29/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 WTA Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns pick.

Aryna Sabalenka Preview

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a three-set win over former doubles partner Elise Mertens. It’s her ninth consecutive win over the Belgian. Sabalenka lost the first set 6-3 in 38 minutes. But she only dropped three games in the next two sets to complete a comeback victory. She broke Mertens six times to prevail 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 in two hours.

Sabalenka finished the match with six aces and four double faults. She landed 57% of first serves in play and won 66% of first serve points (29/44). Sabalenka won 45% of second serve points (15/33) and saved four of eight breakpoints on her serve. Sabalenka has reached the Madrid final in three of the last four editions, winning the title twice. She lost to Iga Swiatek in a breathtaking final last year. Sabalenka improves to 4-1 on clay this season. She defeated Anna Blinkova in her opening match last week and tallied two wins in Stuttgart over a week ago.

Peyton Stearns Preview

Peyton Stearns is unseeded at the Madrid Open and reached the second week of this WTA 1000 event for the first time. The world no. 44 dispatched Switzerland’s Rebeka Masarova 6-2, 6-0 in 65 minutes. Stearns broke Masarova six times in the match. She hit one ace and three double faults. Stearns landed 62% of first serves in play and won 65% of first serve points (17/26).

The American won 63% of second serve points (10/16) and only faced one breakpoint on her serve. Stearns lost in the first round in Madrid last season, so this is a massive improvement. She has beaten Kimberly Birrell and, perhaps shockingly, Amanda Anisimova in the last two rounds. Stearns improves to 3-1 for the season on clay after starting the swing with a defeat to Ajla Tomljanovic in Charleston.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Stearns met once at the WTA level. Sabalenka defeated the American in three sets at Indian Wells last season after saving match points.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction

Stearns is having an exceptional tournament, but a victory over World No. 1 Sabalenka is still too big of an ask here. Yes, she’s got the tools to hurt Sabalenka and has shown immense poise and resilience during the opening week, especially in victories over Anisimova and Birrell, but I reckon Sabalenka has so much swagger in her game and the mental toughness to avoid a shock defeat in this one. But expect this match to be another bumpy ride for the top seed in her quest to make the last eight.

Nur Said's Pick: Over 18.5 games in the match