Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction 9/10/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face third seed Jessica Pegula in the US Open semifinals on Thursday, September 10. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction. This preview will include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula pick.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Preview

Aryna Sabalenka survived a major scare against Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals to keep her title defense at the US Open alive. Sabalenka was pushed by the reigning Wimbledon champion all the way in a very entertaining match that required a final set 10-point tiebreak to decide. Before that, Sabalenka had battled back from a break down in the third set, and prevailed in tiebreak 10-8. The match lasted two hours and 22 minutes. It was the first time in the tournament that Sabalenka had dropped a set.

In the victory, Sabalenka hit 42 winners and committed 30 unforced errors. She tallied 12 aces and 4 double faults in the match. Sabalenka landed 65% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (48/62). She won 61% of second serve points (20/33) and saved three of six break points. Sabalenka won’t retain the No. 1 ranking after the tournament with confirmation that Elena Rybakina reached the semifinals and is set to replace the Belarusian at the top of the rankings.

Jessica Pegula was far from her best, but she still did enough to see off an inspired Emma Navarro in the all-American quarterfinal. Pegula dropped the first set 6-3 in 50 minutes, but managed to level the match with a late break in the second set. Pegula recovered from a break down in the third set to win 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in two hours and 22 minutes.

In the victory, Pegula hit 31 winners and committed 30 unforced errors. Pegula tallied 6 aces and 8 double faults in the match. She landed 61% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (42/61). Pegula won 41% of second serve points (16/39) and saved 8 of 12 break points in the match. This is her third successive semifinal at the US Open. Pegula has lost to Sabalenka in her last two US Opens.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Pegula have met 13 times. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 9-4 and has beaten Pegula in the last two US Opens, including the 2024 final. Pegula won their only meeting of 2026 in Berlin in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction

Looking at this matchup, I’m tempted to flip the pick to Pegula and I think she has a decent chance of ending Sabalenka’s title reign. Pegula is one of those opponents who can make her pay for every little dip and their match in Berlin gave us plentiful evidence. Moreover, Sabalenka has looked shaky lately, and especially in the Grand Slams this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Pegula finally gets her revenge at the US Open.

Nur Said's Pick: Pegula in three sets