Pick details
England (2-0-1) / Mexico (3-0-0)
08:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: England +140 / Mexico +205 — Over/Under: 2.5
Mexico Preview
Mexico finished the group phase of the World Cup with 9 points, with three wins and were placed 1st in Group A. They are coming off a 2-0 win over Ecuador in the round of 32, where they had 43% possession of the ball and 15 total shots, 3 of them on target. They had 78% completed passes, and more expected goals, with 1.05 compared to Ecuador’s 0.75.
Mexico is averaging 2 goals per game, while allowing zero goals per game. They have a +2.0 goal differential, 1.38 average expected goals, 0.55 average expected goals conceded and +0.8 average expected goal differential. They have 48% possession of the ball and 100% save percentage, while having 4 clean sheets.
Julián Quiñones is Mexico’s top scorer with 3 goals. Roberto Alvarado is Mexico’s top passer, with 3 assists.
England Preview
England finished the group phase of the World Cup with 7 points, with two wins and one draw and were placed 1st in Group L. They are coming off a 2-1 win over Congo DR in the round of 32, where they had 60% possession of the ball and 16 total shots, 7 of them on target. They had 91% completed passes, and more expected goals, with 2.15 compared to Congo DR’s 0.77.
England is averaging 2 goals per game, while allowing 0.75 goals per game. They have a +1.2 goal differential, 1.90 average expected goals, 0.60 average expected goals conceded and +1.3 average expected goal differential. They have 65% possession of the ball and 67% save percentage, while having 2 clean sheets.
Harry Kane is England’s top scorer with 5 goals. Bukayo Saka is England’s top passer, with 2 assists.
England vs Mexico Prediction
France has three wins and two draws in its five meetings against Paraguay, but three of those games were friendlies.
In this England vs Mexico Prediction, England is coming +140 favorites. Don’t overcomplicate this. We have the best defense in the World Cup in Mexico, who has yet to concede a single goal and they are playing in front of their home crowd. They have also scored the same number of goals as England, who needed a comeback win against Congo and did not look good for the most part of the game. There is huge value with Mexico to not lose in this game, so take them by +0.25 goals in this one.
