Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction 4/26/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens meet Sunday in NHL action from the Bell Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning will be out to add on to their 3-2 OT win over Montreal last time out to take a 2-1 series lead.

Lightning Looking To Push Montreal To Brink

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 130 points including 44 goals and 86 assists while Brandon Hagel has 74 points with 36 goals and 38 assists and Jake Guentzel has 88 points with 38 goals and 50 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 52 points with 23 goals and 29 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 70 points with 22 goals and 48 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 39-15-4 with a 2.31 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 11-10-2 with a 3.29 GAA and an .884 save percentage this season. 

Montreal Canadiens Recap

The Montreal Canadiens come into this one looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Lightning in game three last time out.

Canadiens Seeking To Make Series Best Of Three

Nick Suzuki leads Montreal with 101 points including 29 goals and 72 assists while Cole Caufield has 88 points with a team-high 51 goals and 37 assists. Lane Hutson has 78 points with 66 assists while Ivan Demidov has 62 points with 19 goals and 43 assists. Noah Dobson has 47 points with 35 assists and Mike Matheson has 37 points with 7 goals and 30 assists. Oliver Kapanen has 37 points with 22 goals and 15 assists while Zack Bolduc has 30 points with 12 goals and 18 assists. Juraj Slafkovsky also has 73 points with 30 goals and 43 assists. Sam Montembault has gone 10-8-4 with a 3.43 GAA and an .872 save percentage in goal for the Canadiens while Jakub Dobes is 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Jacob Fowler is also 8-6-2 with a 2.52 GAA and an .904 save percentage for the Habs this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens Betting Trends: April 26, 2026

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 28 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine games.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won eight of their last nine games against the Canadiens after coming off overtime.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last four Game 4s of an Eastern Conference First Round series.
• The road team has covered the puck line in four of the Lightning’s last five games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four home games following a win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in six of their last seven road games when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last five games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Four of the Lightning’s last five road games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last nine Sunday night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in 10 of the Lightning’s last 11 games after coming off overtime.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 13 of the Canadiens’ last 14 games as home underdogs.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Mike Matheson has recorded an assist in each of his six previous Sunday appearances against the Lightning.
• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored a goal in six of the Canadiens’ last eight games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored a goal in each of his last five road appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances in Game 4s of a playoff series.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens have recorded the equal-most wins when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season (29).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.56%).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction

I’m on the Canadiens in this one. I think Montreal’s been right there for a lot of this series, and were unfortunate to not come out with the win in game three. Ultimately this is a series I have going six or maybe even seven games, and this just feels like a series that’s heading back to Tampa tied at two. Give me Montreal here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Montreal +105