Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction 3/21/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Oilers Prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 21st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Edmonton Oilers Preview

The Oilers have 77 points this season with a 34-27-9 record, and are 27-43 ATS and 40-27 in over/under. They have a 18-12-4 home record and a 16-15-5 road record and are sitting 3rd in the Pacific Division. They are coming off a 4-0 home loss to the Panthers, and their previous three games were a 5-3 home win over the Sharks, a 3-1 home win over the Predators, and a 3-2 road overtime loss to the Blues.

Offensively, the Oilers are averaging 3.47 goals per game and are scoring 31.4% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.37 goals per game and are killing 77.1% of their opponent’s power plays.

Connor McDavid leads the Oilers with 115 points and 37 goals, adding a team-high 78 assists. Tristan Jarry is the starting goalie for the Oilers, and he has a 16-9-2 record, with 3.39 GAA and .883 SV%. Connor Ingram is the backup goalie and he has a 11-7-2 record, with 2.77 GAA and .892 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Lightning have 88 points this season with a 42-21-4 record, and are 36-31 ATS and 34-29 in over/under. They have a 20-12-0 home record and a 22-9-4 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 6-2 road win over the Canucks, and their previous three games were a 6-2 road win over the Kraken, a 4-2 home loss to the Hurricanes, and a 4-1 home win over the Red Wings.

Offensively, the Lightning are averaging 3.57 goals per game and are scoring 22.0% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.75 goals per game and are killing 82.1% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 114 points and 38 goals, adding a team-high 76 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for the Lightning, and he has a 32-12-3 record, with 2.29 GAA and .914 SV%. Jonas Johansson is the backup goalie and he has a 10-9-1 record, with 3.23 GAA and .884 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the Edmonton Oilers will win

• The Oilers have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as road favorites following a road win.
• The Oilers have covered the puck line in each of their last four games as home underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games following a road win.
• The Oilers have won the second period in 13 of their last 14 games when leading after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last six games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Oilers have lost four of their last five games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Oilers have failed to cover the puck line in 13 of their last 14 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last five games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last six games against Western Conference opponents when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last six road games against Pacific Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Oilers’ last six Saturday home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 13 games as favorites.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Oilers’ last 10 games following a loss.

Edmonton Oilers Player Prop Facts

• Leon Draisaitl has recorded at least one assist in each of the Oilers’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Connor McDavid has scored at least one goal in each of the Oilers’ last four home games against the Lightning.
• Connor McDavid has scored the first goal in three of the Oilers’ last four games as home underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last seven road games against Pacific Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight appearances against Pacific Division opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Edmonton Oilers rank 1st in the league in power play percentage this season (31.44%).
• The Edmonton Oilers rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.47).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.57).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Lightning vs Oilers Prediction

The Lightning won their previous meeting against the Oilers this season by 2-1 in overtime at home and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Lightning vs Oilers Prediction, the Lightning are coming as -140 road favorites. I’m on the Lightning in this one, as they are coming off back-to-back wins where they scored 6 goals in each game, while the Oilers are coming off a shutout loss and their offense has been up and down lately. The Lightning have allowed two goals or less in three of their last four games and combined with their red-hot offense, I expect them to take care of business on the road in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML