Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction 5/14/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction for Game 5 of this NHL Eastern Conference Semifinal on Thursday, May 14th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Buffalo Sabres Preview

The Sabres finished the regular season with 109 points with a 50-23-9 record and were placed 1st in the Atlantic Division. They have a 26-10-5 home record and are coming off a 3-2 road win over the Canadiens, and their previous three games were a 2-6 road loss, a 1-5 home loss, and a 4-2 home win over the Canadiens.

Offensively, the Sabres are averaging 3.45 goals per game and are scoring 19.5% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.93 goals per game and are killing 81.9% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 81 points and 40 goals, while Rasmus Dahlin leads the team in assists with 55. Alex Lyon is the starting goalie for the Sabres, and he has a 20-10-4 record, with 2.77 GAA and .907 SV%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the backup goalie and he has a 22-9-3 record, with 2.52 GAA and .910 SV%. Check out tonight’s other game between the Golden Knights and Ducks. 

Montreal Canadiens Preview

The Canadiens finished the regular season with 106 points with a 48-24-10 record and were placed 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They have a 24-9-8 road record and are coming off a 2-3 home loss to the Sabres Their previous three games were a 6-2 home win, a 5-1 road win, and a 2-4 road loss to the Sabres.

Offensively, the Canadiens are averaging 3.40 goals per game and are scoring 23.1% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.06 goals per game and are killing 78.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 101 points and 72 assists, while Cole Caufield leads the team in goals with 51. Jakub Dobes is the starting goalie for the Canadiens, and he has a 29-10-4 record, with 2.78 GAA and .901 SV%. Samuel Montembeault is the backup goalie and he has a 10-8-4 record, with 3.43 GAA and .872 SV%.

Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres Betting Trends: May 14, 2026

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won 13 of their last 15 night games at KeyBank Center following a road win.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in 14 of their last 17 night games at KeyBank Center following a road win.
• The Sabres have won the third period in eight of their last nine games when leading after the second period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Sabres have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 17 games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in eight of their last nine games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last five road games against the Sabres following a home loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Sabres’ last six Thursday games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Ten of the last 11 Thursday night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last nine games as favorites against the Canadiens.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last seven road games against the Sabres.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Josh Doan has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last five games.
• Tage Thompson has scored five goals against the Canadiens this season – most against any opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Alex Newhook has scored at least one goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five games.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last seven Thursday games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Buffalo Sabres rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (81.90%).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only two teams to win 30+ games when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season.

Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction

Both teams are tied 4-4 in their last 8 meetings and are 2-2 in their last 4 meetings in Buffalo.

In this Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction, the Sabres are coming as -120 home favorites. The series is tied at 2-2 wins and we already had the first low-scoring game of the series in Game 4 with just 5 goals. I will go back to backing the under in this series, as both teams had only one game with 6+ goals in their last 6 and 10 games respectively. They both play excellent defense in the postseason, allowing 5 goals per game combined, so I will go under 6 goals in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 6