Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 5/3/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Canadiens vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, May 3rd at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL playoff matchup.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are tied 3-3 in this series after they split the first six games by scores of 4-3, 2-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 0-1. In game six, Montreal had plenty of chances throughout the game, but they couldn’t convert any and lost nine minutes into overtime. The Canadiens recorded 30 shots on goal, won 51.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Montreal was led by Demidov, who had five shots on goal, while Dobes stopped 32 out of 33 shots, which was a .970 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Montreal lost to the Flyers by a score of 4-2, but did beat the Islanders by a score of 4-1 before that. The Canadiens have alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 106 points. Montreal scored 3.40 goals per game and they allowed 3.06 goals against per game, while also going 23.1% on the power play and 78.2% on the penalty kill this season. Nick Suzuki led Montreal with 29 goals and 72 assists, while Lane Hutson added 12 goals and 66 assists. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who was 29-10-4 with a 2.78 goals against average and a .901 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are tied 3-3 in this series after they won game six by a score of 1-0. Tampa Bay also had plenty of chances throughout the game, but they finally converted on a rebound in overtime to keep the series alive. The Lightning recorded 33 shots on goal, won 48.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got their lone goal from Goncalves, while Vasilevskiy stopped all 30 shots in the shutout victory. 

Prior to this series, Tampa Bay lost to the Rangers by a score of 4-2, but did beat the Red Wings by a score of 4-3 before that. The Lightning have lost seven of their last 12 games and they finished second in the Atlantic standings with 106 points. Tampa Bay scored 3.49 goals per game and they allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 20.7% on the power play and 82.6% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov led TB with 44 goals and 86 assists, while Jake Guentzel added 38 goals and 50 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was 39-15-4 with a 2.31 goals against average and a .912 save percentage this year. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Canadiens have lost each of their last six night games at Benchmark International Arena after coming off overtime.
• The Lightning have won nine of their last 10 games against the Canadiens after coming off overtime.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the Lightning’s last four games.
• The Canadiens have lost the second period in five of their last six games against Atlantic Division opponents when leading after the first period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 13 games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 24 games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 12 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the first period in three of their last four games at Benchmark International Arena.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight night games between the Canadiens and Lightning have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Canadiens’ last five games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine Sunday games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 14 of the Canadiens’ last 15 Sunday night games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight Sunday night home appearances.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last six Sunday appearances.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for Points (130) this season.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in nine of the Canadiens’ last 10 games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (51) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.49).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank T4th in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (4).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 4th in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.20).

Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay has had plenty of issues with Montreal throughout this series, but they got great goaltending from Vasilevskiy in game six and will look to advance at home here. The Lightning were 26-14-1 at home this year, while the Canadiens were 24-9-8 on the road. Montreal doesn’t have much momentum coming into this one, but they have played well in the series and I think they have a very solid chance here. I view this game as a toss up, so I will gladly take the plus money with Montreal. Take the Canadiens here.

David Racey's Pick: Canadiens ML