Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 8/14/2026 Picks

The Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders meet Friday in NFL preseason action from Northwest Stadium in Summerfield. Here’s a Dolphins vs Commanders prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Dolphins vs Commanders pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

Ultimately the Dolphins were a disappointment last season, taking a step even further back from a losing 8-9 record the year before. Miami eventually finished 7-10 overall, which sent them to third place in the AFC East (ahead of only the lowly Jets). The Dolphins opened up the year at just 2-7 but did manage to keep their playoff aspirations alive with four straight wins in the middle of the season. Ultimately Miami didn’t make it, though. It’s been 25 years since the Dolphins have won a playoff game; that’s the longest active streak in the NFL.

Moving on to 2026, Miami will get a new head coach in Jeff Hafley and a new general manager in Jon-Eric Sullivan. That duo spearheads a massive organizational rebuild, as former mainstays Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have all departed also. Taking over at QB is Malik Willis, who will have a patchwork roster of journeymen and youngsters to work with.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

Over on the Washington side, they had an even worse year in 2025. The Commanders started out reasonably well at 3-2, but then hit an ugly eight-game losing streak to hit 3-10 overall. Washington would eventually finish just 5-12 overall, thanks in part to a slew of key injuries (Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin among them). Washington finished at third in the NFC East (ahead of only the Giants) and missed out on the playoffs.

This year the Commanders are a bit more optimistic, and if they can avoid the injury bug the team should be able to take a step forward. Washington gets David Blough (offense) and Daronte Jones (defense) in the coordinator slots this season, and if that duo can get the team churning on both sides of the ball they’ll do some damage in the division. On paper at least, the Commanders look much improved.

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders Betting Trends

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Dolphins have won three of their last four road openers as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games played as underdogs on the West Coast.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in three of their last four season openers against AFC West opponents.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in four of their last five season openers against AFC West opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of the Dolphins’ last six season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tutu Atwell has recorded 48+ receiving yards in six of his last eight September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 90+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against AFC opponents.
• Jalen Tolbert has scored a touchdown in five of his last six Sunday appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 60+ rushing yards in each of his last 11 appearances.
• Jordyn Brooks recorded the equal-most tackles in a single game last season (20 vs Commanders, Week 11).

Matchup/League Facts

• Dolphins – two different players recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• The Dolphins suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10+ points last season (5).

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Commanders have covered the spread in four of their last five games without Jayden Daniels.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Mariota has recorded 211+ passing yards in four of his last five Sunday appearances.
• Dyami Brown has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Rachaad White has recorded 23+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 25 regular season appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Terry McLaurin has scored a touchdown in four of the Commanders’ last five Sunday games at Lincoln Financial Field.
• Rachaad White has recorded 15+ rushing yards in each of his 28 previous regular season appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in six of his last eight appearances with the Commanders as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Rachaad White ranked T3rd amongst qualified players for catch rate (88.9%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Commanders ranked 32nd in the NFL in fumbles recovered (2) last season.
• The Commanders have failed to win a single quarter in three games last season – most in the NFL.

Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction

I’ll lean toward Washington, but it’s preseason so anything can happen. The Commanders’ offseason overhaul looks pretty promising. A healthy Jayden Daniels will have quite a bit to work with in the receiving corps, including McLaurin and four-time Pro Bowler Stefan Diggs. The offensive line has plenty of depth and veteran presence, which will be instrumental in keeping Daniels off the injury list.

As for Miami, they’re likely in for a bumpy season. The team had to trim a ton of salary in the offseason, and they’re left with 13 rookies from the draft alongside a large group of affordable veterans. The good news is that the Dolphins play the Jets twice, so they may be able to power out another third-place finish in the division as they rebuild.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Washington Commanders -3