Steelers vs Browns Prediction 10/1/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Steelers vs Browns prediction for this NFL game on Thursday, October 1st at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-1 this season after they defeated the Bengals by a score of 30-27 last week. Pittsburgh was tied 17-17 at halftime and they trailed 27-24 in the fourth, but they kicked two field goals in the last nine minutes for the win. The Steelers out gained Cincinnati by a total of 411-352, went 7-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, while Darnell Washington caught three passes for 67 yards. Jaylen Warren rushed 17 times for 127 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Pittsburgh lost to the Patriots by a score of 20-3, but did beat the Falcons by a score of 20-13 before that. The Steelers have scored 17.7 points per game with 207.7 passing yards and 95.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.0 points against per game this season. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 700 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while Jaylen Warren has rushed 38 times for 216 yards this season. 

Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

The Cleveland Browns are 2-1 this year after they defeated the Panthers by a score of 21-18 last week. Cleveland led 10-3 at halftime, but they trailed 18-13 late in the fourth, before scoring with 1:48 left for the win. The Browns were out gained by a total of 360-259, went 5-15 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle by a total of 1-1 in the game. Deshaun Watson threw for 144 yards and two touchdowns, while Harold Fannin Jr caught seven passes for 51 yards and two scores. Quinshon Judkins rushed 18 times for 70 yards in the victory. 

Prior to that game, Cleveland defeated the Buccaneers by a score of 23-19, but lost to the Jaguars by a score of 34-10 before that. The Browns have scored 18.0 points per game with 178.3 passing yards and 87.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.7 points against per game this season. Deshaun Watson has thrown for 587 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, while Denzel Boston has nine catches for 195 yards and two scores this year. 

Why the Cleveland Browns will win

• The Browns have won each of their last nine Thursday home games.
• The Steelers have lost four of their last five games as favorites without T.J. Watt.
• The Browns have covered the spread in each of their last five home games against AFC North opponents.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Thursday road games.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the Steelers’ last four games.
• The Steelers have lost the first half in seven of their last eight Week 4 road games against AFC opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• The Steelers have won each of their last four October games against the Browns.
• The Browns have lost each of their last four Week 4 games.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last four October games against the Browns.
• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs following a home win.
• The favorites have won the first half in four of the Steelers’ last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Browns’ last eight games at Huntington Bank Field following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Steelers’ last four Thursday road games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last three Thursday games at Huntington Bank Field have gone OVER the total points line.

Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts

• Harold Fannin Jr. has scored the first touchdown in each of the Browns’ last three games at Huntington Bank Field.
• Harold Fannin Jr. has scored the last touchdown in each of the Browns’ last four games at Huntington Bank Field.
• Harold Fannin Jr. has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Browns’ last five games at Huntington Bank Field.
• Deshaun Watson has recorded 20+ completions in each of his five previous Week 4 appearances.
• Deshaun Watson has recorded 33+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Deshaun Watson has recorded 239+ passing yards in each of his last four Thursday appearances.
• Jerry Jeudy has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of his 15 previous home appearances against division opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Quinshon Judkins ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• D.K. Metcalf has scored a touchdown in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite against teams that held a winning record.
• D.K. Metcalf has recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of his seven previous road appearances against AFC North opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 233+ passing yards in 15 of his last 16 October appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last six Thursday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Heading into Week 4, Sebastian Joseph-Day ranks T2nd in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Browns rank T1st in the NFL in Q4 win percentage (100.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Browns have recorded more total yards than their opponent in zero game this season – equal-fewest in the league.
• Steelers – one of only two teams with 2+ players to record at least 3.0 sacks this season (Alex Highsmith, T.J. Watt), heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Steelers rank T3rd in the NFL in forced fumbles (5) this season.

Steelers vs Browns Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they will have the home field advantage here. The Browns have allowed just 18.5 points in their last two games and the offense has done enough to find victories. Pittsburgh is also 2-1 on the year and won a high scoring game over the Bengals last week. The Steelers are probably the better team in this matchup, but I don’t trust Rodgers and this offense on a short week. Give me the Browns and the points at home.

David Racey's Pick: Browns +2.5