Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction 9/20/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Here’s a Steelers vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Steelers vs Patriots pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Steelers kept their run going in 2025, finishing 10-7 overall (for the third straight season) and making the playoffs (for the third straight season). Pittsburgh was also able to take the AFC North title after a four-year drought, but didn’t last long in the postseason. The Steelers matched up against the Texans in the Wild Card Playoffs, losing 30-6 in the end.

In their opener versus the Falcons, Pittsburgh was down early 7-3 but came back with 10 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Steelers finished off with a fourth-quarter touchdown to cement a 20-13 victory in the end. QB Aaron Rodgers was 24-of-40 for 221 yards and a TD, and Jaylen Warren had 10 carries for 46 yards for the Steelers.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

Over on the New England side, they had quite the successful run in 2025 but fell just short of the ultimate goal. The Pats rolled to a nice 14-3 overall record, taking first place in the AFC East. After making the playoffs for the first time since 2021, New England beat the Chargers, Texans and Broncos on their way to yet another Super Bowl berth (which they lost to the Seahawks 29-13).

Matched up against the Seahawks last Wednesday in their 2026 opener, the Patriots held a 10-3 lead going into the final quarter. New England was outscored 10-0 from there however, leading to a 13-10 loss. QB Drake Maye was 23-of-33 for 178 yards, one TD and three picks. leading receiver Mack Hollins caught four balls for 51 yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson had 18 carries for 51 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Week 2

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last 11 games as home favorites against AFC North opponents.
• The Steelers have lost three of their last four road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Patriots’ last six games at Gillette Stadium.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games following a home win.
• The Steelers have lost the first half in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have won the first quarter in four of their last five games at Gillette Stadium.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• The Steelers have won each of their last eight interstate games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Patriots have lost eight of their last nine September games at Gillette Stadium.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine September games at Gillette Stadium.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in six of their last eight September games at Gillette Stadium.
• The Patriots have lost the first quarter in each of their last three games as favorites following a road loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Steelers’ last seven road openers as underdogs against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Patriots’ last six games at Gillette Stadium following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Hunter Henry has scored two touchdowns in three of his four previous appearances against the Steelers.
• Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in six of the Patriots’ last seven regular season games as favorites.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 25+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last 10 games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• Mack Hollins has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances.
• Hunter Henry has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Patriots’ last six games against AFC North opponents.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last nine regular season games at Gillette Stadium.
• Heading into Week 2, Hunter Henry ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• Jaylen Warren has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Steelers’ last five Sunday games as underdogs.
• Jaylen Warren has recorded 64+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last four Sunday games.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 233+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances against the Patriots.
• Jaylen Warren has recorded 43+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine appearances following a win.
• Michael Pittman Jr. has recorded 40+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Steelers’ last five Sunday games.
• Heading into Week 2, Alex Highsmith ranks T1st in the NFL in sacks (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 2, the Patriots rank T1st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (100.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 2, the Patriots rank T1st in the NFL in H1 win percentage (100.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 2, the Steelers rank T1st in the NFL in red zone percentage against (0.0%) this season.
• Heading into Week 2, the Steelers rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (0.0%) this season.

Steelers vs Patriots Prediction

I’ll stay with New England. The Pats certainly should have won their opener versus the Seahawks—a game in which neither team played all that well. New England’s defense gave up just 13 first downs and 2-of-11 on third-down tries but didn’t have a takeaway. The Patriots’ offense was 5-of-16 on third downs and had the three interceptions. There are plenty of improvements to make, but New England gets some extra time in between games here and should look better.

As for the Steelers, they did pretty well on defense versus the Falcons. Pittsburgh gave up just 118 passing yards, 4.2 yards per play, 16 first downs and 2-of-12 on third downs alongside a couple of picks. The offense wasn’t amazing though, logging just 15 first downs with a 3-of-13 success rate on third downs (and 0-for-2 on fourth downs). A road game at Gillette against a rested Pats team sounds like too tall an order.

Andrew Jett's Pick: New England Patriots -5.5