Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Prediction 1/4/26 Today’s NFL Picks

The Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos meet in week 18 NFL action from Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos prediction.

Los Angeles Chargers Recap

The Los Angeles Chargers come into this game looking to bounce back from a 20-16 loss to Houston last time out to sit at 11-5 this season. 

Chargers Focusing On Playoff Berth

Justin Herbert has thrown for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on 66.4% passing while Kimani Vidal also has 631 rushing yards and 3 TDs as well this season. Omarion Hampton has 545 rushing yards and Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers with 789 receiving yards coming on 66 catches with 6 TDs while Keenan Allen has a team-high 74 catches for 741 yards and 4 TDs. Quentin Johnston has 735 receiving yards with 8 TDs and Oronde Gadsden II has 47 catches for 641 yards as well. On defense, Daiyan Henley has a team-high 103 total tackles including 54 solo tackles. Tuli Tuipulotu has a team-high 13 sacks while Donte Jackson and Tony Jefferson each have a team-high 4 interceptions. As a group, the Chargers’ defensive unit has combined for 41 sacks and 19 interceptions so far this season.

Denver Broncos Recap

The Denver Broncos come into this game looking to add on to their 20-13 win over Kansas City last time out to sit at 13-3 this season.

Broncos Looking To Secure Home Field & 1-Seed

Bo Nix has thrown for 3,790 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 63.5% passing while J.K. Dobbins has rushed for a team-high 772 yards and 4 touchdowns and RJ Harvey has 512 rushing yards so far this season. Courtland Sutton leads Denver’s receiving group with 73 receptions for 1,012 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns while Troy Franklin also has 65 receptions for 709 yards and 6 touchdowns. Four more Broncos have 300+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Alex Singleton has a team-high 128 total tackles while Nik Bonitto has a team-high 12.5 sacks and Jonathon Cooper has 8 sacks. As a unit, Denver’s defense has combined for 64 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Betting Trends: Week 18

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Broncos have won 12 of their last 13 games.
• The Chargers have lost each of their last 10 games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
• The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites without Alex Singleton.
• The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three road games without Will Dissly.
• The Chargers have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
• The Broncos have won the first half in eight of their last nine games against the Chargers following a win.

Why the Los Angeles Chargers will win

• The Chargers have won each of their last seven games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have lost four of their last six games as favorites when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last nine games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Chargers have won the first half in three of their last four games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
• The Chargers have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as home favorites following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chargers’ last seven road games in January have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of the Broncos’ last nine games as home favorites following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Bo Nix has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Broncos’ last six games.
• Bo Nix has recorded 212+ passing yards in seven of the Broncos’ last eight Sunday games.
• RJ Harvey has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Broncos’ last eight Sunday games.
• Troy Franklin has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last eight home games.
• Bo Nix has recorded 15+ rushing yards in eight of the Broncos’ last 10 Sunday games as favorites.
• Heading into Week 18, Bo Nix ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (3.0%) this season.

Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts

• Ladd McConkey has scored a touchdown in each of the Chargers’ last four games following a loss.
• Quentin Johnston has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight regular season road appearances.
• Quentin Johnston has recorded 48+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight regular season road appearances.
• Heading into Week 18, Cameron Dicker ranks 3rd in the NFL in made field goals (37) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Broncos – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
• Heading into Week 18, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in sacks (64.0) this season.
• Chargers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
• Chargers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I’m anticipating the Chargers sitting Justin Herbert here, as Herbert’s been getting pounded for much of the season behind this patchwork O-line, and while the Chargers could improve their positioning, it seems like the Chargers are prioritizing health here, knowing they’re playing in the wild card round no matter what. On the other side, it’s simply win and you’re the one seed for Denver, style points don’t matter, and they didn’t last week for Denver who only scored 20 and won by 7 against a Chiefs team on their 3rd string QB for the majority of that game. It’s a low total, but low for a reason. Give me the under.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 37.5