Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 12/7/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in week 14 NFL action from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs prediction.

Houston Texans Recap

The Houston Texans come into this game looking to build on their 20-16 win over Indianapolis last time out to sit at 7-5 this season. After this game, Houston will head home for a game against Arizona.

Texans Win 4th In A Row

C.J. Stroud has 1,978 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 66.1% passing while Davis Mills has thrown for 879 yards, 5 TDs and an INT on 58.7% passing. Nick Chubb has rushed for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns as well this season. Woody Marks also has 486 rushing yards and 2 TDs while Nico Collins leads Houston’s receivers with 795 receiving yards and 4 TDs and Dalton Schultz has 59 grabs for 552 yards. Xavier Hutchinson has 303 receiving yards and 3 TDs and Jayden Higgins has 359 receiving yards as well this season. Three more Texans have 150+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Azeez Al-Shaair leads the Texans with 79 total tackles while Jalen Pitre has 3 INTs and Will Anderson Jr. has 10.5 sacks. Danielle Hunter also has 11 sacks while Calen Bullock has 4 interceptions and Derek Stingley Jr. has 3 interceptions as well this season. As a unit, Houston’s defense has combined for 34 sacks and 12 interceptions up to this point in the year.

Kansas City Chiefs Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game looking to rebound from their 31-28 loss to Dallas last time out to sit at 6-6 this season. After this game, the Chiefs will take on the Chargers at home.

Chiefs Lose 3 Of Last 4

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,238 yards, 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 64.6% passing while also rushing for 348 yards and 4 TDs. Kareem Hunt has rushed for a team-high 515 yards and 7 TDs while Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 345 yards. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 59 catches for 719 yards and 5 TDs while Rashee Rice has 486 receiving yards with 5 TDs and Hollywood Brown has 459 receiving yards with 5 TDs as well. Xavier Worthy has 401 receiving yards and Tyquan Thornton has 372 receiving yards while JuJu Smith-Schuster has 299 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs with 100 total tackles while George Karlaftis has a team-high 5 sacks. As a unit, Kansas City’s defense has combined for 22 sacks and 7 interceptions so far this season.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 14

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Texans have lost each of their last seven Week 14 games.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games as home favorites.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in each of their last five games in December.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in 11 of their last 12 Week 14 games.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Texans have won each of their last seven games following a Division game.
• The Chiefs have lost four of their last five games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
• The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs without Derek Stingley Jr..
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last two games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Texans have won the first quarter in five of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last four games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last seven regular season home games against AFC opponents.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his last 22 Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as favorites.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 250+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as home favorites.
• Noah Gray has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight regular season games as home favorites.
• Heading into Week 14, Patrick Mahomes ranks T1st in the league for pass attempts inside the 20 (81) this season.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in each of the Texans’ last five regular season road games against AFC opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 24+ rushing yards in 69 of his last 73 Sunday regular season appearances.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 229+ passing yards in each of his last five appearances with the Texans as underdogs following a win.
• Christian Kirk has recorded 26+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 41+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 19 December appearances.
• Davis Mills has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances as a starter.
• Heading into Week 14, Calen Bullock has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Bills, Week 12).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 14, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (80.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (27.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (265.7) this season.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

I’m on Houston and the points here. I just think this is going to be a competitive games between these two teams and more of a defensive battle between these two. I think the points are going to come into play here and are going to play a role in what I could see being a 19-17 kind of game here. Give me the points with the Texans.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Houston +3.5