Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 10/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, October 4th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 0-3 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NFC South. They are coming off a 16-23 home loss against the Vikings and will face the Cowboys, the Steelers and the Panthers next.

Offensively, the Buccaneers average 20.7 points per game, ranking 19th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 26.3 points per game, which is 23rd. Tampa Bay averages 279.3 total yards per game (185 passing and 94.3 rushing), while allowing 282.7 total yards per game (76 rushing and 206.7 passing).

Baker Mayfield leads the Buccaneers with 615 passing yards with 63.5% completed passes and two touchdowns. Bucky Irving leads the team in rushing yards with 180, while Emeka Egbuka has 13 receptions for a team-high 141 receiving yards. Defensively, Josiah Trotter has a team-high 24 total tackles (10 of them solo), while David Walker leads the team in sacks, with 2.

Green Bay Packers Preview

The Green Bay Packers have a 1-2 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NFC North. They are coming off a 14-35 home loss against the Falcons and will face the Bears, the Cowboys and the Lions next.

Offensively, the Packers average 18.7 points per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 30.3 points per game, which is 29th. Green Bay averages 315.3 total yards per game (266.7 passing and 48.7 rushing), while allowing 340.7 total yards per game (138.7 rushing and 202 passing).

Jordan Love leads the Packers with 844 passing yards with 52.4% completed passes and six touchdowns. MarShawn Lloyd leads the team in rushing yards with 68, while Christian Watson has 17 receptions for a team-high 284 receiving yards. Defensively, Evan Williams has a team-high 27 total tackles (17 of them solo), while Lukas Van Ness leads the team in sacks, with 2.5.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Packers and Buccaneers.
• The Packers have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Packers and Buccaneers.
• The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games following a loss.
• The Packers have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Week 4 games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won the first half in each of the last four games between the Packers and Buccaneers.

Why the Green Bay Packers will win

• The Packers have won each of their last seven games in October.
• The Buccaneers have lost each of their last six Sunday games.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 12 games.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the last three games between the Packers and Buccaneers.
• The Packers have won the first quarter in each of their last seven road games against the Buccaneers.
• The Buccaneers have lost the first half in eight of their last nine Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Packers have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games without Antoine Winfield Jr. have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers’ last four games as favorites without MarShawn Lloyd have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last eight Sunday games at Raymond James Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Sean Tucker has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games following a home loss.
• Kenneth Gainwell has recorded 14+ receiving yards in each of his last nine home appearances against conference opponents.
• Kenneth Gainwell has recorded 38+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against conference opponents.
• Kenneth Gainwell has recorded 20+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Chase McLaughlin ranks 1st in the NFL in made field goals (9) this season.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Watson has scored the first touchdown in four of his last five appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 October appearances.
• Jordan Love has recorded 10+ rushing yards in each of the Packers’ last four October games against NFC opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Packers’ last three games against NFC opponents.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 172+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances as a starter.
• Josh Jacobs has scored the last touchdown in four of his last five regular season appearances with the Packers as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of his last 13 regular season appearances with the Packers as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 12 October appearances.
• Tucker Kraft has recorded the equal-most drops (4) of any player this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Buccaneers rank 32nd in the NFL in Q1 opponent points per game (9.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Buccaneers rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (66.7) this season.
• Packers – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Packers – two different players have recorded 100+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.

Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction

In this Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction, the Packers are coming as -3.5 road favorites. The Buccaneers have been winless this season and have also failed to cover the spread in all of their three games. The Packers are also 0-3 against the spread and have worse numbers than the hosts both offensively and defensively and have allowed 35+ points in two of their three games this season, while the Buccaneers have allowed 23 in each of their last two games and are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Packers. I like the value with the home dog in this matchup, so take the Buccaneers and grab those +3.5 points.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5